It's official now. Vermont's Independent Senator Bernie Sanders (pictured) is abandoning his independent status, and will be running for the Democratic presidential nomination against Hillary Clinton.I like Bernie -- a lot. I even donated a small sum to his last senatorial run. He's smart, and he understand economic matters better than almost all of the other senators. Having said that though, I have to admit I look at his campaign as rather quixotic. He will do his best (because that's what he always does), but in the end he will lose badly to Hillary Clinton.
Most Democrats like Hillary Clinton, and they feel that she's paid her dues. They also like the graceful way she accepted defeat in 2008. They just feel that she has earned her shot at the presidency -- and most (including me) feel she is the best chance we have to keep an extremist Republican out of the White House.
I know that many on the left feel he can force Hillary to move further to the left -- and even Bernie, I think, is really just in it to trumpet the progressive cause. I have no problem with that. The more we can get the progressive viewpoint before the public, the better off we will all be.
But the fact is that most Americans (and most Democrats) don't even know who Bernie Sanders is -- and he currently has the support of only 10% of Democrats. He will become more well-known as the campaign progresses, but I just can't see him getting more than 20%-25% of the Democratic vote. And that's not enough to make Hillary Clinton move at all. She's already more liberal (progressive) than many of the left seem to think, and she knows that she needs to look like a moderate to win the White House (because most Americans want a moderate).
I would love to see a left-winger in the White House, but that's just not going to happen -- at least in 2016. I do believe the nation is moving back toward the left, but we're not there yet. Hillary Clinton will do much of what we progressives would like to see done, and once she is in office we can try to push her a bit further. I don't know if that will work, but I do think she is the best we can hope for in 2016. What we really need to do is elect a bunch of Democrats to Congress -- so she doesn't have to go through the same hate-filled obstructionism that President Obama has encountered.
I welcome Bernie Sanders to the Democratic primary race. But I hope my leftist brothers and sisters don't get their hopes up too high. Hillary Clinton is going to be the nominee, and that's a good thing -- because it will keep a Republican from winning.
The charts below are from a recent YouGov Poll -- done between April 25th and 27th of a random national sample of 1,000 adults, with a 4 point margin of error. They show just how far behind Bernie is starting out.
