Awaiting Confirmation -- Weekly Stock Market Update, Forecast, and Outlook for Week of July 29 to August 2.

End of the week market update for next week. The stock market hit the 13 EMA today. This is the key area I am watching for the longer term outlook and forecast that we will back test the November 2012 low before we find out if we are still in a bull market or if the bear has awakened.  

As indicated in the equity update this week, there may or may not be one more short term thrust up towards the August 7 confluence period before I expect the back test of the November 2012 low to begin. Link to This Week's Long Term Thesis Update. I am using the 13 EMA for the short term signal that we have likely started the move down. The reason another move up cannot be ruled out is the fractal in the DOW chart shown in the Link Above  which had an additional move tacked on at the end. Time wise, however, as shown in the DOW chart in the Link Above we could have fulfilled the price high already. As indicated in that Link Above the orange scenario below in the updated chart below is the preferred scenario, but I cannot rule either out. Here is the updated chart: This is similar to how I used the 50 DMA in June and July to stay safe on the short term moves in the overall larger thesis. See July 8 Description. Here, the 13 EMA is the line I am using coming out of the top of the chart.

The short term Wonderwood trades since the May 22 top have gathered 13.93 SPY points (139.3 SPX points). These trades are all posted real time on here and trading in both directions off the top. See Recent Summary here.I am early and taken some heat with the two I have on. They were not good trades. As always, I will post when I exit them.
Peace, Om, SoulJester