Before Hurricane Helene began devastating parts of the southeastern U.S., Amanda Wright had expected some rain and perhaps some flooding in the area around Knoxville, Tennessee, where she lives.
It wasn't until friends more than two hours away in Asheville, North Carolina, started posting warnings on Facebook that Wright realized how dangerous the storm could be.
"It seems like you never really know who to believe," Wright, 32, said. "There is so much information out there that you don't really know who to trust."
Wright and millions of other Americans face an information ecosystem that is very different from the 1950s, when the U.S. government began making public predictions about dangerous weather. And despite advances in the science of forecasting and the introduction of smartphones that can deliver precise warnings directly to users, the urgency of such warnings can often be lost in quick social media feeds or undermined by widespread skepticism toward government and the media . .
Hurricane Helene's deadly path took shape days before the Category 4 storm made landfall in Florida's Big Bend region late Thursday, September 26.
Scientists from the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center began sounding the alarm as early as September 23. In a YouTube video posted that morning, National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome described a tropical cyclone that would "quickly develop" into a hurricane. On Monday evening, the National Weather Service reported on X that heavy rain and strong winds would hit the Southeast later in the week.
On Wednesday, the National Weather Service sent out a "rare" press release urging the media to continue focusing on the catastrophic nature of Hurricane Helene. It was part of a broader strategy to connect directly with the public and strengthen relationships with local governments and media partners, said David Novak, director of the NWS's Weather Prediction Center.
That day, North Carolina's governor declared a state of emergency, as did Buncombe County, which had already begun to see heavy rain and warned of severe storm conditions and would become one of the state's toughest counties.
"It is not common for the National Weather Service to use words like 'catastrophic' to describe forecasts," Buncombe County Manager Avril Pinder said at a news conference Thursday morning. "When they do, we all have to pay attention."
The situation had become so dire that the sheriff in Taylor County, Florida, on Thursday grimly asked residents who disobeyed evacuation orders to write their names and Social Security numbers on their bodies so officials could later identify them if they did not survive.
"I have no doubt that these accurate forecasts saved lives and property," Novak said.
Most people, he said, "were taking this seriously."
Still, according to NBC News, more than 130 people died during the storm in six states. Officials said at least 40 of those deaths occurred in Buncombe County, hundreds of miles away from where the storm made landfall.
In the heart of Asheville, which is part of Buncombe County, Mae Creadick, 52, said local officials had warned residents about the storm via text messages, but she and her neighbors didn't believe it could destroy the area, so she and her family stayed put.
But on Monday, as the city went "apocalyptic," they searched the house for $15 in change, took the gas out of her son's car and drove 90 miles before finding normalcy in Columbia, South Carolina.
"Many people in the mountains probably didn't heed the warnings because this has never happened to this extent here," she said. "If warnings were not heeded or adequate warnings were not given, it is because this is so unprecedented."
In Tennessee, where at least eight people have died, Wright shared the same sentiment. "We never thought something like this could happen," she says. She said the storm was a "wake-up call for a lot of people."
Part of the challenge for authorities and forecasters is communicating the links between extreme weather and climate change. That has even made apolitical groups like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service a target of some Republicans.
Former President Donald Trump said at a rally on Sunday, while speaking about Helene, that climate change is "one of the great scams." Project 2025, a conservative policy roadmap for another Trump term, includes language calling NOAA part of the "climate change alert industry" and that it "needs to be broken up and downsized." It also says the National Weather Service, part of NOAA, should focus on collecting data and "commercialize its forecasting activities." Trump has rejected that plan, even though many of his key allies were involved.
Kelli Burns, an associate professor of communications at the University of South Florida, said the loss of trust between citizens and government agencies and the media creates something of a paradox.
"Everything is politicized these days - even hurricane warnings," she said, adding that meteorologists and reporters must walk a fine line to avoid creating panic, while also clearly communicating the risks to keep people safe.
Meanwhile, distrust in traditional institutions "leads us to potentially make bad decisions or ignore information that could potentially save our lives," Burns said.
Chris Gloninger, a meteorologist and climate scientist, quit a television career last year due to harassment he received in response to his reporting on climate change and its impact on the weather. Gloninger noted that severe warnings were issued for many parts of North Carolina last week and that weather forecasts have improved in recent years. But better predictions now competed for attention with social media and ideology-driven perspectives, he said.
"Even with all the rigor, even with all the tools and technology, even as we become better communicators over time, with those social sciences, engineering sciences, coming together and finding best practices, we still have to deal with this marginal part of society that there is a lot of oxygen that they have," he said. "And it fuels this disinformation, disinformation, and I would say that is one of the most challenging things that we have to counter."
Gloninger added that false claims about the storm linked to fringe conspiracy theories appeared to be a new element. Some people took this moment to advance the false idea that the storm was the result of a government-made "weather modification weapon."
"This was really the first event I've seen where a certain segment of the population spread misinformation about geoengineering and weather modification," Gloninger said. "And it's amazing."
Another conspiracy theory that received some attention claimed that lithium mining interests had altered the course and severity of the storm to wipe out local opposition to mining. Such claims on X and TikTok were viewed millions of times.
An account on But the post contradicted itself: It said there was a lithium deposit "underneath Asheville" and then acknowledged that the deposit is actually 70 miles away in Kings Mountain, North Carolina.
Yotam Ophir, an associate professor at the University at Buffalo who studies political and scientific communication, said severe weather events have traditionally attracted disinformation and conspiracy theories, but the modern information ecosystem now makes it easier for outlandish claims to find audiences who are often curious about statements.
Now, he said, that, combined with a decline in trust in institutions like government and the mainstream media, has created a challenging environment for news consumers and legitimate sources of information.
"I don't think individuals have the tools to identify truth and deception in such complicated topics," Ophir said. "And we need to restore the confidence of those who do know how to do it."
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
