As indicated in recent updates and on Twitter, I am looking first for the market to lose the 1787 area to signal that we have at least a ST top. I believe that will happen in short order. The weekly charts are showing that the Time and Price Window I identified has likely delivered. Here are the recent posts: In the Time Price Window and Time and Price Hit.
I am going to provide one chart as a data point. Do your own due diligence, read the disclaimer, and make your own decisions as always. Here is the data point:
Significant declines have come from such divergences as shown on the chart, including the 1991, 1994, 1998, 2003, 2008, and 2011 declines. If this analog plays out, the DOW will trade at 13000 before or around May 6, 2014. This is the back test of the November 2012 pivot low.
Here was the original scenario for this move downwards as posted on In the Time Price Window.
I was merely waiting to see if we got the Intermediate/Long Term Top the week of 11/22 or the week of 12/6 as reflected on the chart. I believe now the top is likely in this week. I have refined the scenario to be as accurate as I can. Here it is:
The Red Line Scenario is the primary, and the blue scenario the alternate.They both end up around DOW 13000. Accordingly, if this scenario plays out we will hit DOW 13000 between February and May 2014. I prefer the May 6 date for the final low, but am agnostic on the topic.
In summary, DOW 13000 between late February and early May 2014 (February 17-May 6ish) is my theory going forward unless it gets taken away. I will be back for a post on the December 20th. Have a great couple weeks.
There always exist both a bull and a bear path and only the sands of time know which path we will ultimately take.
Peace, Om,
SoulJester
