The chart above is from RealClearPolitics. It shows the average of the recent polls for the 13 top Democratic candidates for the party's presidential nomination. The RCP polls average has proven in the past to be more accurate that most single polls.
Currently, there are three candidates averaging in double-digits -- Joe Biden (29.8%), Elizabeth Warren (18.0%), and Bernie Sanders (17.7%). Five other candidates are averaging over 2% support -- Kamala Harris (7.0%), Pete Buttigieg (4.3%), Andrew Yang (2.7%), Cory Booker (2.5%), and Beto O'Rourke (2.3%). They will be joined in the third debate by Amy Klobuchar (1.0%) and Julian Castro (0.8%). Tom Steyer will be in the fourth debate (0.5%), after failing to qualify for the third debate.
It is tempting to list these eleven candidates as the ones with a chance to win the nomination, but that's being too generous in my opinion. In reality, there are probably no more than six candidates with a chance of getting the nomination.
Respected poll analyst Nate Silver lists those six as Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg, and Yang (with Yang barely doing enough to have more than a 1% chance to be nominated). He then has four other candidates -- Booker, O'Rourke, Castro, and Klobuchar -- only a 1% chance of being nominated. All other candidates have less than a 1% chance of being nominated. He refers to all but the top six as being "toast"!
I tend to agree with Silver, with one small change. I find it hard to believe that Yang has any real chance at the nomination. I also am not ready to completely count out Tom Steyer. Anyone willing to spend $100 million of his own money on advertising in the primaries with months to go before the first voting begins is hard to discount.
What do you think? Are we down to five or six candidates? Or do more have a shot at the nomination?
