After the Conservative Party was rocked by the success of UKIP in last week’s local elections, in which they lost majorities on twelve councils, senior figures have resolved to win back millions of defectors by ‘taking’ stock of the Government’s political direction.
The party appears to have concluded that they must move further to the right of the political spectrum, and win UKIP supporters by applying matching political colours. To do so would be a mistake, given that this assumes that UKIP won votes due to its policy platform. That didn’t happen. People turned away from the three major parties either due to the vague sense that immigration levels are too high, or because they wanted to shake up a complacent and uninspiring political establishment. This is particularly evident given the wide gap between UKIPs policies (a flat tax, an end to environmentalism, even faster spending cuts, etc.) and the views of their voters.
The Conservatives, particularly their backbenchers, are under the impression that their string of right-wing announcements made over the past few days will be popular. It is indeed the style of the hard-right ‘shire’ MP to believe that opposition to same-sex marriage, the European Union, and wind farms is as central to voters’ lives as it is to theirs. That’s why there are actions being planned to fulfill both, though Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs will probably block such moves.
What is an unfortunate fact is that public concern about the number of immigrants, from inside and beyond Europe, is such that a large number of decent people have turned to a more hardline party to stand up for them. They cannot be blamed. One party wishes to open borders to large populations of mobile, low-skilled workers in similar circumstances to those that existed in Poland 10 years ago; whilst it was only
in 2010 that the then leader of the other dismissed Gillian Duffy as a ‘bigoted woman’ for worrying that her grandchildren were being squeezed out of the employment market. The white working class feels it has been disenfranchised over the past 20 years, and with a degree of justification.
It is easy to underestimate the political shrewdness of the Conservative Party. Though they have failed to win a General Election since 1992, they are adept at framing the debate on their terms by drawing a narrative that resonates with the public. For example, it is Labour that is on the defensive on the issue of welfare despite the cruelty of Coalition ‘reforms’. Surprisingly, it is UKIP that has beaten them at their own game, beating them to their populist support base.
The country is about to be subjected to a number of regressive policies and plans as the Conservatives attempt to reverse the drift. The unemployed, immigrants and the elderly have much to fear. This means that the Liberal Democrats have a role in denying the parliamentary numbers for any legislation (admittedly this is unlikely), and Labour needs to provide effective, in-touch opposition. If they fail, then the toxic legacy of UKIP’s rise will divide society for generations to come.
