Two weeks ago I published another essay at 3 Quarks Daily:
It’s a decent essay, in particular I like the capsule history I sketch for the emergence of AI Doom as an issue. But it’s hardly my last word on the subject.
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Here’s a TEDx talk from 2017 by a high school student, Andrew Zeitler, entitled, “The Truth Behind Artificial Intelligence.”
It opens with two quick versions of the future, one in which AI is the center of a world of luxury and enjoyment and the other in which AI destroys the human race. At about 14:08 he says the technological singularity will arrive in 2029. He concludes by quoting Edsgar Dijkstra: “The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than the question of whether a submarine can swim.”
He's bright and engaged but, as far as I can tell, does not have deep technical knowledge of AI. He presents these ideas as obvious truths. I have no idea how many people share his beliefs. But relatively few people are in a position to think these matters through with any degree of sophistication.
I have no idea when these issues will be resolved. But I suspect that, at this level, they are issues being driven by symbolic concerns, not technical ones. We’re working through a cultural mythology for the 21st century.
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This is epistemic theater, but also PR (signaling). For those purposes the contents of the essays are irrelevant. How much more such theater is in store for us?
We think it's possible that we're totally out of it on AGI.
— Leopold Aschenbrenner (@leopoldasch) September 23, 2022
And we want to learn about it as quickly as because it would change how we allocate 100s of millions of $ (or more).
Enter by Dec 23! pic.twitter.com/AxA9wM7ZAo
