US President Donald Trump’s vision for Gaza has been met with a largely negative reception around the world. The initiative has been described as outrageous, illegal, ethnic cleansing, a violation of international order, forced displacement, impossible to implement, dramatic, shocking, etc. On the other hand, it has been described as “out of the box” thinking, a panacea, a masterstroke, radical, unconventional, etc.
From my perspective, Trump’s vision is a game changer, the cards have now been redistributed, disregarding the traditional rules, resulting in a pragmatic plan that promises a better future and is feasible due to the presenter.
Trump’s vision
President Trump presented his Gaza vision a little over two weeks ago and has since returned to it on two occasions, also presenting clarifications. The main features of the Trump plan’s control elements:
- After the end of the Gaza war, Israel will hand over the Gaza Strip to US control in terms of Gaza and Hamas; US soldiers would not be needed in Gaza.
- The United States will “clean up the demolition site”, remove the booby traps and mines laid by Hamas, as well as unexploded ordnance, of which there are estimated to be around 30,000 in Gaza.
- The cleanup and The reconstruction of the areas in question, either selectively or by transferring Gazans elsewhere, either to the Gaza security zones or to areas or countries primarily allocated to Egypt and Jordan, has a “humanitarian heart” for “shorter or longer periods of time”.
- Under one leadership and with international funding, Gaza will be rebuilt as the “Riviera of the Middle East”.
In addition to the Gaza vision, Trump has announced that he will issue a statement in March 2025 recognizing Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria. If this happens, it will inspire a force to implement reactions and change the dynamics of the regional conflict.
A game move?
Trump’s vision has shocked the Middle East, his opponents and his domestic allies. The question has not been answered by a tweet but by an idea that he has already presented three times, most recently at an official press conference on February 4, 2024. Thus, and since the world’s most influential political leader is involved, the proposal should be taken very seriously. Since it also concerns Donald Trump, there will also be different perspectives on this.
- Firstly, it may partly be a domestic political tactic with a wild idea to divert journalists and the public from other, perhaps more prosaic, disputes.
- Secondly, it may be a negotiation opening to maximize, in order to finally force the other parties involved, after decades of fruitless negotiations, condemnatory high-flying resolutions and general inquisitorial efforts, to take a position on a concrete model that can also be implemented without the participation of the other parties involved.
- Thirdly, it may be a so-called “mad man’s” tactic – which has been used by, for example, President Putin – when the absence of a presenter creates uncertainty among the interlocutors about this real solution.
Israel Already Acting on Trump’s Vision
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on Thursday ordered the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to prepare a plan “to allow the voluntary departure of Gaza residents”… “I am preparing President Trump for a bold initiative that would allow a large portion of the Gaza population to move under a different agreement,” according to a Defense Ministry statement. Katz said Trump’s plan “will take several years, during which time Palestinians will be integrated into host countries while facilitating long-term reconstruction efforts in a demilitarized and [neighboring] Gaza free of threats in the post-Hamas era.”
According to Katz, countries such as Spain, Ireland and Norway, which have all accused Israel of violating international law during its war in Gaza, would be “legally obligated to accept any Gazans who arrange to enter their territory.”
Gazans’ willingness to leave
According to the propaganda of Palestinian figures and al-Jazeera (Hamas), Gazans do not want to leave anywhere. However, in addition to the elite who have left, there is also a desire to leave among ordinary Gazans.
In 2015, Fatah personnel claimed that over 90 percent of Gazans wanted to leave because of the Hamas regime. Recent surveys show that there is a reason for the desire to leave among Gazans. According to a 2023 survey by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Research (PSR) (conducted from September 28 to October 8, 2023), 31% of Gazans expressed a desire to emigrate from abroad, and nearly half (44%) of 18-29 year-olds were considering emigrating. The most desired destination was Turkey, followed by Germany, Canada, the United States and Qatar.
Dr. Mohimer Abu-Saada, a political scientist who left Gaza during the war and now lives with his family in Cairo, said: “Gaza is now a place where you can only leave. Most of the residents of the strip have become refugees, and there is no infrastructure in Gaza.”
“Before October 7, fleeing Gaza was the most popular dream for Palestinians. The atmosphere, especially among the youth, was one of complete despair, and this may have been one of the reasons why Hamas started the war – to save itself from civil unrest,” said S., a Gazan media figure who fled to Egypt with his family during the war, according to Ynetnews.
According to UN sources, around 133,000 people, about 7% of Gaza’s population, left between 7 October 2023 and 6 May 2024, when the IDF took control of the Rafah crossing. Before the IDF took control of the crossing, a smuggling industry flourished in Rafah, with wealthier Gazans bribed their way into Egypt. After that, movement across the Gaza-Egypt border for Gazans virtually stopped. Before this, the price of a permit ranged from $6,000 to $12,000 per person, allowing the wealthy to establish a community of around 100,000 Gazans in Cairo and join the tens of thousands who lived in the city before the war.
According to the Palestinian Authority, 860,000 people have left Gaza since Hamas took control in 2007. Evidence of this trend was seen last September, a month before the war, when chaos erupted in Gaza as thousands of Gazans crowded into the “Passi” travel agency, which issued visas to Turkey. The 18,000 permits issued were barely enough to meet the enormous demand.
My assessment
I personally welcome Trump’s vision for two reasons. First, it completely re-arranges the geopolitical playing field, at least in the Middle East, by bringing a concrete, viable proposition to the table instead of aimless whining. Second, the proposal, at its best, could implement what I consider to be the most pragmatic Middle East peace-loving Sinai and Jordanian options for the long-term establishment of a Palestinian state or Palestinian autonomy while meeting Israel’s security needs.
Currently, almost everyone other than the White House and Israel (according to opinion polls, 82 percent of Israeli Jews support “encouraging immigration” of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip) opposes Trump’s vision, especially when it comes to “population transfer.” For example, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas has suggested that some Gazans be relocated to the West Bank on condition that a new Palestinian city be built for them. The area west of Jericho has been identified as a possible location for this development.
According to the UN, direct infrastructure damage is $18.5 billion, and the cost of clearing the rubble alone is estimated at $1.2 billion. The total cost of rebuilding Gaza is estimated at $40 billion, and could extend to 2040 or beyond. Trump’s previous “deal of the century” includes, among other things, the reconstruction of Gaza, the construction of an airport and a designated port in El Arish, and a large industrial park in Sinai. Trump’s latest proposal – apart from the refugee resettlement – is seen in Egypt as a sign that the US president is committed to rebuilding Gaza. (Deal of the Century Finally Announced! [Op-Ed])
Understandably, both Egypt and Jordan have serious security concerns about millions of Palestinians being resettled in their territories. These concerns can be overcome by defining for the Palestinians their own demarcated and controlled areas where new camps or cities are located. After a de-radicalization program and the development of social structures, these areas could then, if they so wish, become independent or, for example, form a confederation with host states.
As Trump’s vision is implemented, well-meaning Palestinian advocates may have to consider whether they want to keep people trapped in a devastated enclave for perhaps a decade simply to avoid accusations of ethnic cleansing.
My previous article on the subject: Trump’s pragmatic vision for Gaza
Sources include The Washington Post, Jerusalem Post, CNN, Ynetnews
This article first appeared in the online publication Ariel-Israelista suomeksi
