The NBC News / Marist Poll has issued three new polls on presidential preferences in three early caucus and primary states -- Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. They polled 320 Republicans and 321 Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa (with both having a margin of error of 5.5 points). In New Hampshire, they polled 381 Republicans (moe 5 points) and 309 Democrats (moe 5.6 points). And in South Carolina, 450 GOP voters (moe 4.6 points) and 352 Democratic voters (moe 5.2 points).
NBC declared Jeb Bush and Scott Walker to be the GOP's leaders, since they were at or near the top in all three polls. I'm not buying that argument. Neither candidate could score more than 15 to 18 points in any of the three surveys -- and 18%, even if you got it in every state, would still leave a candidate far from the nomination. There is no real leader among the Republicans, and there won't be until one or two candidates can separate themselves from the field.
Things are different for the Democrats. Hillary Clinton has a substantial lead in all three states. You might notice that Elizabeth Warren was not included in these three polls. That's because she has repeatedly said she is not now running, and won't be running in the future months of the 2016 campaign. NBC News believes Senator Warren (and so do I). It's pointless to include someone in a poll who has absolutely no intention of becoming a candidate.
