We've already reported on Qualcomm's new 12-core Arm uberchip, the Snapdragon X Elite, and its claims of x86-beating performance and efficiency. But it takes two when it comes to a major transition, like moving from x86 CPUs to Arm chips. You don't just need hardware, you also need software.
And that, dear PC fans, is where Windows 12 presumably comes into play. Reports indicate that Microsoft plans to add specific support for Snapdragon X Elite in future builds of Windows.
In concrete terms, Microsoft is said to be working on a new version of Windows, codenamed Germanium, that supports Snapdragon X Elite (via Windows Central). It is said that current Windows-for_arm builds of Microsoft's operating system are not ready for Snapdragon X Elite. The chip will therefore have to wait for Germanium.
Now Germanium is scheduled for release in April. And laptops with that crucial Germanium-Snapdragon X Elite combination will reportedly arrive in June. So by mid-2024 we should have an idea of whether 2024 will be the Arm-powered step change for PC.
By way of background, it's worth remembering why the PC hasn't made a truly substantial transition to Arm CPU architectures yet, despite this being predicted for years and Apple moving to Arm across its entire product line.
About a decade ago, it was thought that Arm was really only suitable for low-power applications. You needed x86 for high performance. But Apple's 'A' and 'M' chips have proven this wrong. Apple's Arm cores now deliver significantly higher performance per clock cycle than any traditional x86 PC processor.
Sure, the best x86 chips still deliver better CPU performance thanks to higher clocks and core counters. But Apple has proven that Arm can compete and then some for fundamental metrics.
More recently, the PC's transition to Arm has been hampered by Qualcomm's exclusive licensing agreement to supply Arm hardware for compatible Windows builds. This arrangement expires next year, making the market accessible to everyone.
The story continues
Of course, it's somewhat ironic that it is indeed Qualcomm that appears to be the first out of the gate with what looks like a chip that could do for PCs what Apple Silicon did for Macs.
But Qualcomm is expected to face some pretty serious competition soon. Nvidia is said to be preparing its own Arm chip for 2025. AMD is also said to be working on an Arm CPU, although no release date has yet been announced.
And in case you haven't forgotten, that massive amount of leaked data from Microsoft shows that it's considering using Arm CPU cores for its next Xbox gaming console. Add all that up, and it certainly seems like Arm hardware on PC will reach critical mass in the coming years.
But what about the software side of the equation. Microsoft, of course, already makes Arm-compatible builds of Windows. But one crucial area where Arm versions of Windows have demonstrably fallen short is in support for older x86 code. Ultimately, you'd expect all major software to be ported to Arm. But during any transition phase, support for legacy x86 software will certainly be critical.
Windows 10 for Arm, of course, included emulation technology that allowed existing unmodified 32-bit x86 apps to run on Arm devices. Windows 11 has upped the ante by adding support for 64-bit legacy software and apps.
But so far, performance and stability have been patchy. Simple apps work most of the time, including some older games, but performance and stability on more demanding software is much more hit and miss. And then there's the annoying problem of driver assistance. A lot of hardware that requires custom drivers simply doesn't work.
This is exactly where Apple has done a really good job. It's easier for Apple, of course, because it controls the entire hardware and software stack. It has allowed Apple to pack features into its Arm-powered A- and M-series chips specifically designed to accelerate x86 emulation, easing the transition from x86 Intel chips to its own Arm designs .
Old x86 Apple software really runs remarkably well on Apple Silicon, and that even includes some games. It's a useful demonstration of both what can be done and what needs to be done if Arm really wants to be viable on PC.
Of course, it is indeed games that pose perhaps the most difficult challenge for any emulation effort. And so it's gaming PCs that will likely be the last bastion of x86 PC hardware.
But Apple has proven how well emulation is possible, and both Qualcomm and Nvidia have every reason to put great effort into making chips that emulate x86 software as best as possible. Neither is licensed to make x86 CPUs. So if they want to gain traction in the PC processor market, Arm chips that properly emulate x86 CPU cores are a must.
Put it this way, you just know that Nvidia would love to build you an entire PC, where you would control both the CPU and the GPU and completely eliminate both AMD and Intel. That would put it on par with its main competition on PC. Intel's push on graphics allows both Intel and AMD to run both major components, leaving Nvidia tossing in the wind and dependent on platform support from Intel or AMD. It cannot possibly be happy with this situation.
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What neither Nvidia nor Qualcomm can do, though, and neither can AMD if it gets in on the Arm action, is make sure Microsoft delivers on its half of the equation. So far, there's little doubt that Microsoft's efforts with Windows on Arm have been half-hearted. But if Microsoft does indeed create a specific build of Windows for Qualcomm's Snapdragon X Elite, this means that Microsoft also has its affairs in order.
And of course, if the next Xbox console really uses Arm cores instead of x86 cores, that automatically means most major games will have an Arm codepad from the start.
So yeah, we've heard it all before. Industry analysts have been predicting for decades that Arm will assimilate the PC. But it could really happen this time, it really could.
