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As we are only 1,316 days until the 2016 Presidential election, Public Policy Polling decided it was about time for them to release their next 2016 poll. PPP polled the top Democrat and Republican Party candidates while also testing them in hypothetical general election campaigns.
So without further adu, let’s take a look at their findings and give you some analysis.
DEMOCRATS:
(With Hillary Clinton + Joe Biden):
- Hillary Clinton – 64%
- Joe Biden – 18%
- Someone Else/Undecided – 6%
- Elizabeth Warren – 5%
- Andrew Cuomo – 3%
- Mark Warner – 2%
- Martin O’Malley, Kirsten Gillibrand, Brian Schweitzer, Deval Patrick – 1%
(Without Clinton, but with Biden):
- Biden – 49%
- Someone Else/Undecided – 15%
- Warren – 11%
- Cuomo – 10%
- Gillibrand – 7%
- Warner – 3%
- Patrick / Schweitzer – 2%
- O’Malley – 1%
(Without Clinton and Biden):
- Someone Else/Undecided – 36%
- Cuomo – 22%
- Warren – 18%
- O’Malley – 8%
- Gillibrand – 5%
- Warner – 5%
- Patrick – 4%
- Schweitzer – 1%
Analysis:
Crystal clear that Hillary Clinton is the main frontrunner for the Democratic nomination that shouldn’t shock anybody nor should the presence of Biden being the beneficiary in the scenario of her not running. Cuomo and Warren are the only other two Democrats who appear to have any name recognition and while Cuomo seems to be building his national profile, I’m not sure Warren is attempting to run nationally. Results should be unsettling for O’Malley who has been a presence on the Sunday morning talk shows and spoken at several state party dinners. Gillibrand benefits the most (besides Biden) from Clinton staying on the sidelines which isn’t a huge shock. Warner will likely be the choice pick for “moderates” in the party which explains his small well of support. Patrick might be better suited as a VP pick and Schweitzer, as of now, is in the same boat.
Other potential candidates who weren’t polled could include Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper.
REPUBLICANS:
- Marco Rubio – 21%
- Rand Paul – 17%
- Chris Christie – 15%
- Paul Ryan/Jeb Bush – 12%
- Someone Else/Undecided – 10%
- Rick Santorum – 5%
- Bobby Jindal – 4%
- Rick Perry – 2%
- Susana Martinez – 1%
Analysis:
Considering how wide open the GOP primary can be there was only one poll PPP did. Rubio remains the frontrunner and even though he’s now getting more of the limelight, it doesn’t appear to be affecting his primary numbers. Rand Paul, on the other hand, has surged to levels his father has never had in early polls which is good news for him. Christie remains a frontrunner early on but his numbers amongst “very conservative” voters probably will hurt him in Iowa. Not great numbers for Ryan/Bush at all especially considering the latter is thought to be one of the main frontrunners. Santorum continues to have his small percentage of the vote and Jindal’s efforts to earn exposure (like O’Malley) have so far failed. Perry’s numbers are hilarious and Martinez is mostly unknown.
Other potential candidates not included were Jon Huntsman Jr., Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
GENERAL ELECTION:
- Hillary Clinton: 46%, Chris Christie: 42%
- Hillary Clinton: 49%, Rand Paul: 43%
- Hillary Clinton: 49%, Marco Rubio: 42%
- Hillary Clinton: 50%, Paul Ryan: 43%
- Joe Biden: 40%, Christie: 49%
- Joe Biden: 47%, Paul: 43%
- Joe Biden: 46%, Rubio: 44%
- Joe Biden: 48%, Ryan: 45%
Analysis:
This seems to fit the idea that Chris Christie is the best bet for the Republican Party to win a national election though its interesting how Paul Ryan, who has experience as a national candidate, appears to be the weakest candidate.
For Hillary Clinton however, she continues to hover around the all important 50% number that really cements someone as the overall frontrunner. As of now, she is doing the correct thing by laying low and privately preparing the groundwork. While Biden has his best shot at the Presidency in 2016, it is probably not going to end up in his favor.
Remember though, we were preparing for Clinton vs. Rudy Giuliani this time in 2005. This is just for fun.
