This is the fifth in a series of graphs focusing on some of the 2012 NHL Draft-eligible prospects. Included here are prospects I had the pleasure of viewing multiple times.
This graph is a visual representation of the offensive-zone risk/reward rating and ratio produced by these draft-eligible players. The higher the number the better these players performed.
Risk/reward rating is an expression of how many more successful plays a player makes than unsuccessful plays during each minute of ice-time. Players can improve their rating by both being successful and engaging in the play.
Ratio does not take into account ice-time. It is simply the number of successful plays a player makes for every 1 unsuccessful play. Again, the higher the number, the better a player performs. Only even-strength events are used for this calculation.
It is important to indicate when and where the games were played in order to establish the level of competition. Obviously, the numbers earned during an Under-18 tournament should be different than those earned during a World Junior Championship.
These players are in no specific order. Only those players with multiple one-game scouting reports using my player tracking system were included in the graph.
FORWARDS
Nail Yakupov was scouted 7 times. Six of those games were played during the 2012 World Junior Championship, while the other was an OHL game.Yakupov's offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.69 is well above-average, and a solid representation of his play in the offensive-zone. His offensive-zone ratio of 2.18 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play is also above-average. He does a great job recovering loose-pucks, and was successful with 64% of his o-zone puck-battles. He also completed 62% of his pass-attempts.
Mikhail Grigorenko was scouted 7 times. Five of those are from the World Junior Championship, and one was from the QMJHL. The other game scouted was the 2012 CHL Top Prospects game. Grigorenko has only a slightly above-average offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.42. His o-zone ratio of 1.72 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play is also only slightly above-average. That said, we need to keep in mind the high level of opposition during the games scouted, as well as injuries. He won only 40% of his o-zone puck-battles, but completed an impressive 69% of his passes.
Filip Forsberg was scouted 5 times. Four of those games are from the World Junior Championship, while the other game took place during the World Under-18 Championship. Forsberg had a below-average offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.29. His below average o-zone performance is also reflected in his below average o-zone ratio of only 1.29 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. That said, we need to remind ourselves of Forsberg young age, and high level of competition during the games scouted. He won 64% of his o-zone puck-battles, but completed only 50% of his o-zone passes.
Tanner Pearson was scouted 4 times. Three of those games are from the World Junior Championship, while the other was the CHL Top Prospects game. Pearson had an impressive offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.75; nearly twice the average for forwards. He also produced a solid offensive-zone ratio of 2.35 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play; most of this while playing against top-level competition. He did a great job recovering loose-pucks, and completed 61% of his passes. That said, he was successful with only 25% of his attempts to beat opposing players 1on1 (deke).
Radek Faksa was scouted 6 times. Four of those games are from the World Junior Championship, and one is from the OHL playoffs. The other game scouted was the CHL Top Prospects game. Faksa produced an above-average offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.58, and an offensive-zone ratio of 1.98 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. His ability to recover loose-pucks helped his numbers substantially.
Sebastian Collberg was scouted 5 times. Four of those games are from the World Junior Championship, while the other game took place during the World Under-18 Championship. Collberg produced a surprisingly low offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.31, and an o-zone ratio of 1.47 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. He won only 40% of his offensive-zone puck-battles.
Tomas Hertl was scouted 4 times. All 4 games took place at the World Junior Championship. Hertl produced an impressive offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.73, and an o-zone ratio of 2.24 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. He won 80% of his o-zone puck-battles, and completed 67% of his offensive-zone pass-attempts.
Martin Frk was scouted 3 times. Two of those games are from the QMJHL, while the other is the CHL Top Prospects game. Frk produced an offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.46, and an o-zone ratio of 2 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. He won 75% of his o-zone puck-battles, and completed 54% of his o-zone passes.
Tomas Hyka was scouted 4 times. Three of those games are from the World Junior Championship, while the other is the CHL Top Prospects game. Hyka had this group's top offensive-zone risk/reward rating at 0.99. He also produced the top o-zone ratio (2.83) among the forwards. He won only 38% of his o-zone puck-battles, but completed an incredible 73% of his o-zone passes, and was successful with 75% of his attempts to beat opposing players 1on1 (deke).
Brendan Gaunce was scouted 3 times. One of those games was the CHL Top Prospects game, one was from the World Under-18 Championship, while the other was from the OHL. Gaunce produced a disappointingly-low offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.05, and an offensive-zone ratio of only 1.05 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. His numbers were destroyed by his 30% success-rate when attempting passes in the offensive-zone.
Scott Laughton was scouted twice. One of those games is from the CHL Top Prospects, while the other is from the World Under-18 Championship. He produced a slightly below-average offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.34, and an offensive-zone ratio of 1.75 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. He won 50% of his offensive-zone puck-battles, and completed an impressive 77% of his o-zone passes.
Gemel Smith was scouted twice. One of those games is from the CHL top Prospects, while the other is from the World Under-18 Championship. He had an offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.34, and an o-zone ratio of 1.31 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. He won only 33% of his o-zone puck-battles, and completed 50% of his pass-attempts.
DEFENSEMEN
Defensemen are involved in substantially fewer offensive-zone events. As such, they usually produce smaller offensive-zone risk/reward ratings. Due to this, it is important to focus on their o-zone ratios in order to view a simpler representation of their play in the offensive-zone.
Ryan Murray was scouted 4 times. Three of those games are from the World Junior Championship, while the other is from the CHL Top Prospects game. Murray had an offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.10, and an offensive-zone ratio of 1.78 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. He was successful with only 45% of his offensive-zone pass-attempts, but was able to get 67% if his attempted-shots through to the net.
Matt Dumba was scouted 3 times. Two of the games are from the World Under-18 Championship, and the other is from the CHL Top Prospects game. He earned an offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.19, and an impressive offensive-zone ratio of 2.63 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. He was successful with an incredible 83% of his attempted o-zone passes, and was able to get 56% of his attempted shots through to the net.
Jacob Trouba was scouted 5 times. Three of those games are from the World Junior Hockey Championship, while 2 others are from the Under-18 Championship. He produced an offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.17, and an offensive-zone ratio of 1.65 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. He completed 64% of his o-zone passes, and was able to get 53% of his attempted shots through to the net.
Griffin Reinhart was scouted 3 times. Two of those games took place during the 2012 Memorial Cup, while the other is from the CHL Top Prospects game. He produced an offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.20, and an o-zone ratio of 2 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. He completed 67% of his offensive-zone passes, and was able to get 60% of his attempted shots through to the net.
Ville Pokka was scouted twice. Once during the WJHC, and once during the World Under-18 Championship. He produced an offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.08, and an o-zone ratio of 1.5 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. His o-zone events were especially limited. He completed all 3 of his o-zone puck-battles, and all 3 of his passes. He failed to keep the puck deep in the offensive-zone with all 3 of his attempts to pinch-in at the blueline.
Olli Maata was scouted 4 times. Once during the WJHC, and 3 times during the Memorial Cup. He earned an offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.20, and an impressive o-zone ratio of 2.8 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. He was successful with 70% of his offensive-zone passes, and was able to get 50% of his attempted shots through to the net.
Cody Ceci was scouted twice. Both games are from the OHL playoffs. He produced an impressive offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.46, and an o-zone ratio of 2.58 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. His offensive-zone events were quite high for a defenseman. He won 67% of his o-zone puck-battles, did a great job recovering loose-pucks, and completed 67% of his pass-attempts. He was also able to get 55% of his shot-attempts through to the net.
Adam Pelech was scouted 3 times. Twice during the Under-18 Championship, and once during the CHL Top Prospects game. Pelech did not engage in many offensive-zone events. As such, he had a low offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.06, and an o-zone ratio of 1.6 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. He completed only 33% of his o-zone pass-attempts, but was able to get all 3 of his attempted shots through to the net.
Connor Carrick was scouted twice. He is only ranked 124th by Central Scouting, but his numbers intrigued me enough to include him here. He had an impressive offensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.51, and an offensive-zone ratio of 6 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. He completed all of his o-zone pass-attempts, and was able to get each of his 3 shots through to the net.
