Is Vanek the right offensive centrepiece moving forward?
Thomas Vanek will become an unrestricted free-agent if left unsigned on July 1st, 2014.
At 30 years-old, the Habs biggest trade-deadline addition in recent memory remains a player positioned outside the realm of data-generated scouting. His ratings, ratios, and possession success-rates reflect a below-average player with limited impact on the game, while his point totals, scoring-chance numbers, and possession rating portray a player with game-changing talents.
This is not to say that Vanek's ratings didn't reflect his play. In fact, during games where his rating rose above 1.0 Vanek contributed to an impressive 18 ES scoring-chances per-60. When his rating fell below 1.0 he averaged only 10 even-strength scoring-chances per-60. During number 20's disappointing playoff run he helped produce an average of 9.9 ES chances per-60, with an even-strength rating of only 0.60.
Combining both playoff and regular season numbers, Vanek was directly involved in the production of the the most even-strength scoring-chances for per-60 among the 12 Habs wingers with adequate sample-sizes. Defensively, Vanek was directly-responsible for the second-fewest even-strength scoring-chances against per-60.
In terms of points, Vanek contributed the most even-strength points per-60 among Habs wingers (2.49 per-60). He also produced the most scoring-chances per-possession play, while his even-strength possession rating was tops among wingers.
Despite the impressive scoring chance numbers and possession rating, Vanek produced only the sixth-most (out of 12) even-strength scoring-plays per-60 among Habs wingers. He did however, contribute the third-highest percentage of overall events with possession of the puck in the offensive-zone. Expressed simply, this shows that among Habs wingers, only two wingers spent a larger percentage of their overall events with possession of the puck in the offensive-zone. In contrast, number 20 spent the lowest percentage of his overall events defending in the defensive-zone. Once again, expressed more simply, this tells us that no other winger spent less "time" stuck without possession in the defensive-zone.
Vanek's numbers paint him as a passive player with the ability to pick his spots. He was able to produce substantial offensive numbers despite having produced only the eleventh-best even-strength ratio (number of successful plays for every 1 failed play) among Canadiens wingers. He also had the eleventh-best rating (how many more successful plays than failed plays produced per-minute of ice-time). When ratings were adjusted for quality of competition, Vanek's qualcom-adjusted rating of 0.95 moved up to tenth among wingers.
At even-strength, Vanek was successful with 63% of his attempts to remove puck-possession from the opposition, and 53% of his attempted plays with possession. His defensive success-rate was good enough for fourth among Habs wingers, while his possession success-rate was good enough for only twelth. With the purpose of putting Vanek's defensive success-rate into perspective, it's important to note that he attempted the fewest defensive-events (attempts to remove puck-possession from the opposition) of any Montreal player.
In the offensive-zone, Vanek's o-zone ratio of just 1.35 successful plays for every 1 failed play ranked eleventh among Habs wingers, while his offensive-zone rating of 0.28 was also eleventh. He had only the twelfth-best offensive-zone puck-possession success-rate, as he was successful with only 46% of his attempted offensive-zone puck-possession plays. His success-rate of 65% when attempting to remove puck-possession from the opposition in the offensive-zone was fourth-best.
Vanek was successful with a team-leading 71% of his passes off of the rush, while his cycle pass, and pass-to-the-slot success-rates were well below-average. Vanek also attempted more east/west passes across the offensive-zone than any winger not named Max Pacioretty.
Vanek's even-strength play in the defensive-zone can accurately be described as impressive with possession, passive without. He produced a defensive-zone ratio of 2.48, to go along with a d-zone rating of 0.28. His ratio was fifth-best among Habs wingers, while his rating was tenth-best. His low rating is a product of low defensive-zone event totals. Vanek produced a defensive-zone puck-possession success-rate of 67% this season, while his defensive success-rate was 56%. his possession number was fourth among Habs wingers, while his defensive number was tenth.
Over the course of the season Vanek was successful with an impressive 83% of his attempts to dump the puck out of the defensive-zone (without causing an icing). That success-rate fell to only 63% during the playoffs.
Vanek's neutral-zone numbers are predominately below average. He produced only the eleventh-best neutral-zone ratio among Habs wingers at 1.80, and the tenth-best rating (0.23). His neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate of 65% was also twelfth-best, while his neutral-zone defensive success-rate of 65% was fifth-best.
Vanek attempted fewer dump-ins from the neutral-zone than any other Habs winger. He averaged 5.1 dump-ins per-60, while the average among Canadiens wingers was 5.4.
Vanek's powerplay numbers were similar to his even-strength numbers, as his powerplay rating, ratio, and possession success-rates ranked eighth among forwards, while his possession rating, and scoring-chance numbers ranked first among forwards.
Vanek does not have the numbers of a player able to carry a team's offense. His spotty involvement, and stealth style represent a player in need of strong line mates. A recipe that was only available to him when he skated alongside Pacioretty and David Desharnais. Price point, interest, and the availability of other offensive-players will be the determining factors in Vanek's potential return.
