A similar post focusing on even-strength events in ALL 3 ZONES can be found here.
Coaches talk about scoring-chances as the determining factor when judging how their teams are performing. This post will compare the Montreal Canadiens team numbers in the offensive-zone that occur during games where they out-chanced the opposition at even-strength, with the numbers they produced when they were out-chanced. The results not only help us determine which offensive-zone events are impacting the game, they also help us determine which events are most important, as well as which events are worth tracking. No correlation between the games' results and the specific o-zone event tracked could indicate that the event is not being tracked correctly, or that the event is not impacting the game.
The team results indicated within this post are simply the accumulated results of all the players involved in the game. All 2013-14 regular-season games were used in this post. An average of 1200 events were tracked per-game.
A list of all the events tracked within my system can be found here.
Why use scoring-chances?
Scoring-chances are tracked independent of anything else that occurs on the ice. Whether they occur as the result of a turnover, a stretch pass, or a successful pass to the slot is not taken into account. As such, we can use scoring-chances as the determining factor when comparing games where a team enjoys even-strength success or failure.
Why not use wins and losses?
Comparing wins and losses would produce too much noise. Save-percentage and powerplay opportunities have a huge impact on a team's ability to win. Whereas a team's ability to out-chance the opposition at even-strength is controlled solely by the skaters on the ice. (goalies' pass and dump-out attempts are also included in the team totals)
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RATINGS AND RATIOS AT EVEN-STRENGTH
A team's offensive-zone ratio is a reflection of how many successful puck-possession plays a team contributed in the o-zone for every 1 unsuccessful play. Logically, the higher the ratio the better a team performed. In games were the Habs were able to out-chance the opposition at ES they produced an offensive-zone ratio of 1.85 successful plays for every 1 FAILED play; compared to a ratio of 1.71 when they were out-chanced.
In games where the Canadiens were able to out-chance the opposition at even-strength they engaged in 1.26 more offensive-zone events per-minute than they did when they were out-chanced. This makes sense, as logic tells us that the more offensive-zone events a team engages in, the more likely they are to produce scoring-chances for, and the less likely they are to allow scoring-chances against.
ES SC+ES SC-
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RATIO1.851.71OFFENSIVE-ZONE RATIO
ES SC+ES SC-
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE EVENTS / MP5.174.26SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE EVENTS / MP
UNSUCCESSFUL O-ZONE EVENTS / MP2.792.50UNSUCCESSFUL O-ZONE EVENTS / MP
ES SC+ES SC-
O-ZONE EVENTS / MP7.976.76O-ZONE EVENTS / MP
O-ZONE RATING2.381.76O-ZONE RATING
O-ZONE TAKEAWAY TO TURNOVER RATIO1.5961.743O-ZONE TAKEAWAY TO TURNOVER RATIO
A team's offensive-zone rating is a reflection of how many more successful offensive-zone events than unsuccessful plays a team contributed per-minute played . A team's rating is impacted not just by how many more successful events were contributed, it is also impacted by how active a team is per-minute played; the more offensive-zone events, the higher the o-zone rating. Montreal's rating (2.38) was substantially higher in games where they out-chanced the opposition at ES than it was when they were out-chanced (1.76).
Expressed more simply, in games where the Habs out-chanced the opposition they averaged 142.8 more successful plays than failed plays per-60. When they were out-chanced they averaged 105.6 more successful plays per-60; a difference of 37.2 successful offensive-zone events over 60 minutes.
Takeaway to turnover ratio reflects how many takeaways a team produced for every 1 turnover. A takeaway is earned whenever a player successfully removes puck-possession from the opposition by way of a stick-check, body-check, blocked pass, or blocked shot. A turnover is earned whenever a player failed to successfully complete a play with possession; these events include passes, dekes, shots, dump-outs, and dump-ins.
The Habs actually had a higher offensive-zone takeaway to turnover ratio in games when they were out-chanced by the opposition (1.743) than they did when they out-chanced the other team (1.596). This is simply the result of having possession in the o-zone more often during games when they out-chanced the opposition at even-strength than they did in games where they were out-chanced. Having the puck more often meant there were less opportunities to create takeaways; impacting the ratio directly. This also tells us that the Habs were not significantly reliant on offensive-zone turnovers in order create scoring-chances. In other words, they were not necessarily a forechecking-team.
EVEN-STRENGTH PUCK-POSSESSION PLAYS IN THE OFFENSIVE-ZONE
An offensive-zone puck-possession event (o-touch) is defined as any attempted play while in possession of the puck in the offensive-zone. These events include passes, dekes, and shots.
In games where the Habs out-chanced the opposition at even-strength their puck-possession success-rate was 3.1 percentage-points better than it was during games where they were out-chanced. The data indicates that Montreal averaged 43.2 more successful puck-possession plays in the offensive-zone per-60 in games they out-chanced the opposition at even-strength. They also averaged 63.4 more o-zone attempts with possession. This is a logical indication that the Habs had possession in the offensive-zone more often during games where they out-chanced the opposition than they did when they were out-chanced. It is also a clear nod to the importance of possession, and by extension the impact of offensive-zone loose-puck recoveries, and controlled entries; which will be touched upon in a future post.
ES SC+ES SC-
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE O-TOUCHES PER-60162.8119.6SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE O-TOUCHES PER-60
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE O-TOUCHES PER-60283.5220.1ATTEMPTED O-ZONE O-TOUCHES PER-60
O-ZONE OTOUCH SUCCESS-RATE57.4%54.3%O-ZONE OTOUCH SUCCESS-RATE
ES SC+ES SC-
EVEN-STRENGTH DEFENSIVE-PLAYS IN THE OFFENSIVE-ZONE
A defensive-play is defined as any attempt to remove puck-possession from the opposition in the offensive-zone. These events included blocked passes, stick-checks, and body-checks.
In games where the Habs out-chanced the opposition at even-strength their offensive-zone defensive success-rate (or forechecking success-rate) was 3.7 percentage-points better than it was during games where they were out-chanced. Understandably, the defensive-event totals decreased in games where the Habs enjoyed more scoring-chances. The data indicates that Montreal averaged 2.5 fewer successful defensive plays per-60 in games they out-chanced the opposition at even-strength. They also averaged 7.6 fewer attempted defensive-events. This is a logical indication that the Habs had possession in the offensive-zone more often during games where they out-chanced the opposition than they did when they were out-chanced; allowing them to forecheck (chase puck-possession) less-often.
ES SC+ES SC-
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE D-TOUCHES PER-6037.239.7SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE D-TOUCHES PER-60
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE D-TOUCHES PER-6058.165.7ATTEMPTED O-ZONE D-TOUCHES PER-60
O-ZONE DTOUCH SUCCESS-RATE64.1%60.4%O-ZONE DTOUCH SUCCESS-RATE
ES SC+ES SC-
SCORING-CHANCES
I communicated this data on scoring-chances in a previous post, but I though I would include it here for reference purposes.
A scoring-chance occurs anytime a player attempts a shot, or deflects a puck toward the net while positioned in the slot. During games where the Habs were able to produce more even-strength scoring-chances than their opposition they actually produced 18.84 scoring-chances per-60, while giving up 12.15 scoring-chances per-60. In games where they were out-chanced, they had 13.15 chances per-60, while allowing 19.24.
ES SC+ES SC-
SCORING CHANCES FORPER-6018.8413.15SCORING CHANCES FORPER-60
SCORING CHANCES AGAINSTPER-6012.1519.24SCORING CHANCES AGAINSTPER-60
ES SC+ES SC-
In upcoming posts I will break down the rating, ratios o-touches and d-touches in the defensive and neutral-zones. Comparing those numbers in games where the Habs out-chanced the opposition with those produced when they were out-chanced. Following those posts, I will break down the numbers in each event tracked; allowing us to compare the number of d-to-d passes, offensive-zone loose-puck recoveries, dump-ins, etc. that the Habs produced when they were out-chanced with those produced when they out-chanced the opposition.
A list of all the events tracked within my system can be found here.
