In the continual search for new ways of determining a player's value to there team, I've focused this post on the relationship between a player's offensive-zone risk/reward rating and the number of points they produce per-minute of even-strength ice-time.
Offensive-zone risk/reward is a number that reflects how well a player performs in the offensive-zone. It is calculated by subtracting the number of unsuccessful events a player contributes per-minute of ice-time from the number of successful events. The events used in calculating risk/reward rating include puck-battles, loose-puck recoveries, passes, dekes, shots, and blocked/intercepted opposition passes; each of these events are tracked in terms of successes and failures.
Points per-minute played is exactly that; it is the number of goals or assists a player contributes per-minute played. Only even-strength points are included.
Only those players with more than 150 even-strength minutes played were included in the graph below. As we can see, there is a direct, but not exact relationship between a player's offensive-zone risk/reward rating and the amount of points they produce per-minute of ice-time.
Among Montreal's defensemen, PK Subban produced the most points per-minute played, while also producing the highest offensive-zone risk/reward rating. That said, Josh Gorges had the lowest even-strength risk/reward among d-men, but was among the leaders in PPMP. Also of note, Gorges had the second-best defensive success-rate among Habs d-men; the bulk of who's calculation comes from a high success-rate when attempting to hold the puck in at the offensive blueline.
The ratio between points per-minute played and offensive-zone risk/reward rating fluctuates from 5.86 to 13.91 among defensemen, but only from 2.24 to 3.36 among forwards; demonstrating that the correlation between PPMP and ozone risk/reward is stronger among forwards than it is among defensemen. This is also a sample size issue, as forwards contribute more offensive-zone events than defensemen.
Among forwards, the 3 players that produced the highest amount of points per-minute played, also produced the 3 highest offensive-zone risk/reward ratings. Interestingly, those 3 players were Max Pacioretty, Lars Eller, and Colby Armstrong; yes Armstrong. Eller and Armstrong were 2 of only 4 Montreal forwards with offensive-zone puck-possession success-rates above 60%. The other two players being Jeff Halpern, and David Desharnais; who also had high points per-minute played numbers.
The 3 forwards who produced the fewest points per-minute played, also had the lowest offensive-zone risk/reward ratings. Those players were Rene Bourque, Brian Gionta, and Travis Moen. Of note is the fact that only Ryan White had lower offensive-zone puck-possession success-rates than Bourque, Gionta and Moen.
There is no doubt that there is a direct relationship between a forward's offensive-zone risk/reward rating and the amount of points they produce per-minute of ice-time. It is also of note that a player's offensive-zone puck-possession success-rate also impacts the number of PPMP. Equally important; this tells me that I'm on the right track.
