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Quantifying Offense-driving Plays Relative to Replacement

By Kicks @Chrisboucher73
In previous posts I focused on possession-driving plays that occur in the defensive-zone, the neutral-zone, and the offensive-zone. This post will combine the total of each of the events discussed in those posts in order to calculate the number of offense-driving plays each Habs player contributed relative to a replacement per-60 minutes of even-strength ice-time.
One of the main objectives in hockey analytics is to establish a direct link between specific events that occur on the ice and scoring-chances. Obviously, the further away from the opponents' net (outlet pass) an offense-driving play occurs the less likely the play is to result in a scoring-chance. Similarly, the closer the event is to the opponents' net (pass to the slot), the more likely it is to result in a scoring-chance. Not surprisingly, the players who produced the most offense-driving plays per-60, were also among those players who produced the most scoring-chances per-60.
Only plays that push the puck up-ice while maintaining possession, or events in the offensive-zone that directly result in a shot on net were counted  as offense-driving plays. Every event from every Montreal Canadiens 2013-14 regular season and 2014 playoff game was included. A list of all the events I track can be found here.
Successful offensive-zone events included are: Offensive-zone passes off of the rush, offensive-zone east/west passes, offensive-zone passes to the slot, offensive-zone loose-puck recoveries (off of dumps, broken plays, and rebounds), shots, and deflections
Successful neutral-zone events included are: Neutral-zone open-ice dekes, east/west passes, and north/south passes, along with redline and offensive-blueline controlled-carries 
Successful defensive-zone events included are: Outlet passes, stretch passes and defensive-blueline carries.
Max Pacioretty, Montreal's top even-strength point producer led all Habs players in ES offense-driving plays relative to a replacement; producing over 20 more ODP's per-60 than an average Montreal winger. At the other end of the spectrum, Travis Moen produced over 25 fewer ODP's per-60 than an average winger. Other wingers who produced substantially more offense-driving plays per-60 relative to a replacement were Brendan Gallagher and Thomas Vanek.
Among centres, Lars Eller contributed substantially more ES offense-driving plays per-60, but was only ninth on the team in even-strength scoring. That said, Eller was only second to David Desharnais among centres, in scoring-chances per-60.
Among defensemen, PK Subban contributed over 17 more ODP's per-60 than an average Habs d-man, while Nathan Beaulieu and Andrei Markov were also well above replacement value. Douglas Murray contributed over 20 fewer offense-driving plays per-60 than the average Montreal defenseman.


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