Sports Magazine

Neutral-zone Tendencies and Puck-possession Success-rates for Habs Forwards

By Kicks @Chrisboucher73
Data-generated scouting provides us with an otherwise-unavailable opportunity to quantify each player's tendency when in possession of the puck. These tendencies can be broken down by zone, by manpower situation, or both. Studying player tendencies could help determine why certain players are producing specific possession success-rates.
This post will focus on each Montreal Canadiens forward's tendencies when in possession of the puck in the neutral-zone. Only even-strength events in the neutral-zone were used in this calculation. Obviously, the higher the percentage, the more often each player has chosen to attempt that play.
Player tendencies in the neutral-zone are broken down into 4 categories:
  • Attempted passes
  • High-risk attempted passes (through an opposition player's legs, or under his stick)
  • Attempted dekes
  • Attempted dump-ins

The Habs wingers have produced an average neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate of 62% this season. Their n-touch success-rate last season was 70.4%.

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Brandon Prust has an above-average n-zone puck-possession success-rate of 64.5%. Surprisingly, Prust has been more likely to choose a high/risk east/west pass than any other Montreal forward.

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Brendan Gallagher has a below-average n-zone puck-possession success-rate of 55.3%. Gallagher chooses to dump the puck in more often than the average winger. He also chooses a north/south high-percentage pass more often than average.
 
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George Parros (SSS) has an average n-zone puck-possession success-rate of 60%. He has yet to attempt a high/risk pass in the neutral-zone.
 
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Rene Bourque has an above-average neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate of 65.5%. Bourque chooses to dump the puck in more often than any other Montreal forward, while also attempting the fewest high/risk passes.

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Brian Gionta has a below-average neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate of 57.1%. Gionta dumps the puck in more often than the average winger, but he also forces more high-risk passes through the neutral-zone.

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Alex Galchenyuk has a substantially above-average neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate of 67.4%. Galchenyuk chooses to dump the puck in least-often among wingers. He also attempts to beat players 1on1 (deke) in the neutral-zone more often than average.

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Travis Moen has a below-average neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate of 58%. Moen chooses to dump the puck in more often than the average winger, but is successful with only 69.2% of those dump-ins; the average success-rate for wingers is 74.4%.

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Daniel Briere has an above-average neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate of 72.6%. Briere keeps the puck moving north/south in the neutral-zone, as only Bourque chooses to dump the puck-in more often than Briere.
 
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Michael Bournival has an above-average neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate of 66.4%. Only Galchenyuk chooses to dump the puck in less-often than Bournival. Bournival shows some well-earned confidence in the neutral-zone, as he has a substantially above-average neutral-zone passing success-rate.

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Max Pacioretty has a below-average neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate of 58.2%. Pacioretty's o-touch success-rate in the neutral-zone is 12 percentage-points lower than it was last season. He has had the puck more often in the neutral-zone, as evidenced by an increase in neutral-zone puck-possession events. But, he's been successful with far-fewer o-touch events this season.


CENTRES
The Habs centres have produced a neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate of 69.9% this season. Their n-touch success-rate last season was 73.9%.

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Tomas Plekanec has an above-average neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate of 71.2%. Plekanec focuses on keeping the puck moving north/south, as he dumps the puck-in and attempts low-risk passes more often than the average Montreal center. Plekanec also chooses the deke option in the neutral-zone less-often than any Habs forward.



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David Desharnais has a below-average neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate of 61.4%. Desharnais chooses to dump the puck in least-often among all Montreal skaters. He also attempts substantially more neutral-zone dekes than the average.

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Ryan White has a substantially above-average neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate of 80.9%. Among all forwards, only Bourque chooses to dump the puck in more often than Ryan White.


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Lars Eller has an above-average neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate of 70.6%. Eller attempts neutral-zone dekes more often than the average Montreal centre, while attempting fewer low-risk passes.

Tendencies can be an important clue to a player's performance. Thankfully, data-generated scouting allows us to quantify each player's tendency when in possession of the puck.

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