Habs can't close their eyes on Weaver's short-handed performance
Mike Weaver will become an unrestricted free-agent if left unsigned on July 1st, 2014. At 36 years-old, the Habs shortest-serving defenseman forced his way into the conversation for a spot on the Habs blueline next season through solid even-strength play, and outstanding short-handed play. His numbers at even-strength place him in the middle of the pack among the current group of defensemen, while his short-handed performance dominated all Montreal defensemen.
Combining both playoff and regular season numbers, Weaver was directly involved in the production of the fourth-most even-strength scoring-chances for per-60 among Habs defenseman. Unfortunately, Weaver was also directly-responsible for the third-most even-strength scoring-chances against per-60.
In terms of points, Weaver shockingly contributed the more even-strength points per-60 than any other Habs defensemen; ahead of PK Subban and Andrei Markov. That said, Weaver produced a substantially smaller sample size than most Habs defensemen. To keep things in perspective, all other Habs defenseman produced more scoring-chances per-possession play than Weaver, while his even-strength possession rating was last among d-men.
Weaver produced the eighth-most (out of 9) even-strength scoring-plays per-60 among Habs defensemen. He also contributed the lowest percentage of overall events with possession of the puck in the offensive-zone. Expressed simply, this shows that among Habs d-men, Weaver spent the smallest amount of "time" with possession of the puck in the offensive-zone. In contrast, number 43 spent the second-highest percentage of his overall events defending in the defensive-zone. Once again, expressed more simply, this tells us that Weaver spent a substantial amount of his overall events stuck without possession in the defensive-zone. These two last metrics (percentage of overall events) are great tools for distinguishing offensive defensemen from defensive defensemen.
Weaver produced the fourth-best even-strength ratio (number of successful plays for every 1 failed play) among Canadiens defensmen; behind Josh Gorges, PK Subban, and Andrei Markov. He also had the fifth-best rating (how many more successful plays than failed plays produced per-minute of ice-time). When ratings were adjusted for quality of competition, Weaver's qualcom-adjusted rating of 1.86 still placed him fifth among Habs d-men.
At even-strength, Weaver was successful with 67% of his attempts to remove puck-possession from the opposition, and 68% of his attempted plays with possession. His defensive success-rate was good enough for first (smaller sample size) among Habs d-men, while his possession success-rate was good enough for fifth.
In the offensive-zone, Weaver's o-zone ratio of 2.03 was good enough for second among Habs d-men, while his offensive-zone rating of 0.19 was fourth; the lower rating compared to ratio is a result of the fact that Weaver did not engage in many offensive-zone events per-minute played. He had the fourth-best offensive-zone puck-possession success-rate, as Weaver was successful with 53% of his attempted offensive-zone puck-possession plays. His success-rate when attempting to remove puck-possession from the opposition in the defensive-zone was second-best; a testament to Weaver's ability to limit the number of high-risk plays he makes at the offensive blueline.
Weaver's even-strength play in the defensive-zone was solid but not outstanding. He produced a defensive-zone ratio of 2.92, to go along with a d-zone rating of 1.52. His ratio was fourth-best among Habs d-men, while his rating was third-best. Weaver produced a defensive-zone puck-possession success-rate of 72% this season, while his defensive success-rate was 65%. His possession number placed him third among Habs d-men, while his defensive number placed him fifth.
Weaver was successful with 83% of his attempted loose-puck recoveries in the defensive-zone; tops among Habs d-men. That said, he was successful with only 53% of his attempts to dump the puck out of the defensive-zone (without causing an icing); lowest among Montreal defensemen.
Weaver's neutral-zone numbers are disappointing. He produced only the sixth-best neutral-zone ratio among Habs d-men at 3.25, and the eighth-best rating (0.30). His neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate of 65% was also eighth-best, while his neutral-zone defensive success-rate of 81% was an impressive second-best. Only Subban and Nathan Beaulieu attempted fewer neutral-zone defensive-plays than Weaver per-60; this reflects Weaver's low-risk tendencies. He also attempted the fewest neutral-zone puck-possession plays per-60; putting his low success-rate into perspective, as his neutral-zone turnover per-60 total was actually lower than most Habs d-men; despite the low success-rate.
Weaver's short-handed performance is what sets him apart, and what makes him an intriguing option for next season. He produced the team's top defensive-zone ratio and rating while short-handed. This tells us that while killing penalties, Weaver contributed more successful plays in the defensive-zone per failed play, than any other Montreal defensemen. It also tells us that Weaver contributed more successful plays than failed plays per-minute played (reflecting his involvement in the play short-handed). Weaver had a higher short-handed success-rate than any other d-man when attempting to remove puck-possession from the opposition in the defensive-zone, and had the second-highest success-rate when attempting to clear the puck out of the d-zone while short-handed; only Subban's was better.
The biggest argument for Weaver's return is not only made around his short-handed performance, but also around and the fact that he's a right-handed defenseman. Even if Jarred Tinordi and Nathan Beaulieu were ready to take on everyday roles next season, both players are left-handed shots. Forcing either of them to play on their offside would put unnecessary pressure on a player just trying to make his way into the NHL. Realistically, the only thing that will keep Weaver out of a Habs sweater moving forward is if Montreal's brain trust fells they can find someone that's a better right-handed option in the free-agent market.
