Sports Magazine

Measuring Each Player's Offensive-contribution at Even-strength

By Kicks @Chrisboucher73
This post will focus on 7 different ways we can measure the offensive-impact of individual players.
  • Scoring-chances per-60
  • Scoring-chances per-100 possession plays
  • Percentage of total events with possession in the offensive-zone
  • Scoring-plays per-60
  • Percentage of corsi-events-for that result in a scoring-chance
  • Neutral-zone possession-driving plays per-60
  • Controlled defensive-zone exits per-60

A list of all the metrics I track can be found here
SCORING-CHANCES PER-60 MINUTES PLAYED
Players must be directly involved in the production of a scoring-chance in order to be credited. As a team, the Habs averaged 6.63 scoring-chances per-60 during games where they out-chanced the opposition at even-strength, while averaging 4.6 during games where they were out-chanced.
Among defensemen with substantial ice-time, PK Subban contributed to the most ES scoring-chances per-60 minute of even-strength ice-time. Douglas Murray contributed the fewest scoring-chances per-60.
Among centres, David Desharnais contributed to the most scoring-chances per-60. Ryan White had the fewest ES scoring-chances per-60.
Thomas Vanek contributed to the most scoring-chances per-60; followed closely by Max Pacioretty. Travis Moen contributed the fewest ES chances per-60 among wingers.
 
SCORING-CHANCES PER-100 POSSESSION PLAYS
The top offensive-players on any team create the most scoring-chances. The most efficient offensive-players create the most scoring-chances per-possession play. An offensive-touch is defined as any play  a player attempts while in possession of the puck. Plays used in this calculation include; passes, dekes, dump-ins, and shots. Scoring-chances included in this post reflect only those scoring-chances where the player indicated was directly involved in the creation of the chance, and not just on the ice. This metric is similar to offensive-efficiency in Basketball. 
As a team, the Habs averaged 5.25 scoring-chances per100-possession plays during games where they out-chanced the opposition at ES, while averaging 3.77 per-100 during games where they were out-chanced.
Among defensemen, Nathan Beaulieu averaged the most even-strength scoring-chances per-100 possession plays, while Subban had the most among d-men with substantial sample sizes.
Among centres, Desharnais contributed the most scoring-chances per possession play.
Among wingers, Thomas Vanek contribute to the most scoring-chances per-possession play, while George Parros contributed the fewest.

 
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL EVENTS WITH POSSESSION IN THE OFFENSIVE-ZONE
Puck-management is about making the necessary plays in order to both acquire, and maintain puck-possession in the offensive-zone. This post will communicate how well each player performed managing the puck. The graph included displays the percentage of all events (defensive and offensive/ all zones) each player engaged in while in possession of the puck in the offensive-zone. Those with a higher percentage spent more time with possession in the o-zone. Consequently, they spent less time defending in the defensive-zone. 
 
As a team, the Habs spent 29.5% of their overall events with puck-possession in the offensive-zone during games where they out-chanced the opposition at ES, while averaging 26.5% o-zone possession in games where they were out-chanced.
Among defensemen, Subban engaged-in a higher percentage of his overall events with possession in the offensive-zone than any other d-man. The lowest percentage was produced by Mike Weaver.
Among forwards, Pacioretty engaged in the highest percentage of his overall events with possession of the puck in the offensive-zone; with Vanek and Rene Bourque close behind.

SCORING-PLAYS PER-60 MINUTE PLAYED
This graph reflects the number of successful scoring plays each player produced per-minute played. Scoring-plays used in this calculation include; offensive-zone loose-puck recoveries, shots, passes to the slot, and dekes. These events were used because research has shown that players who average the most scoring-chances, also have high contribution numbers within these individual metrics. 
As a team, the Habs averaged 166.4 scoring-plays per-60 in games where they out-chanced the opposition at ES, while averaging 147.2 in games where they were out-chanced.
Among defensemen with significant ice-time, Subban produced the most even-strength scoring plays per-60 minutes played.
Among players who played exclusively at centre during the regular season, Eller contributed the most scoring-plays per-60.
Among wingers, Max Pacioretty averaged the most scoring plays per-60; followed by Brendan Gallagher.

PERCENTAGE OF CORSI-FOR EVENTS THAT RESULT IN A SCORING-CHANCE
This graph shows the percentage of even-strength CORSI-for events that resulted in a scoring-chance. The higher the percentage the more involved each player was in creating scoring-chances while they were on the ice. A player is credited with a scoring-chance only when he is directly involved in the play that produced the scoring-chance. The calculation is done by taking the number of scoring-chances each player was involved in creating and dividing it by the number of corsi-for events that occurred while the player was on the ice.
These numbers take corsi-events and use them to tell a more indicative story about players' offensive-contributions. As we can see, Beaulieu, Subban, and Markov helped produce a higher-percentage of scoring-chances per corsi-event than other Habs d-men.
Vanek was responsible for a higher percentage of scoring-chances per-corsi-for event than any other Montreal player, while Pacioretty produced the second-highest percentage. Parros had the lowest percentage, while Alex Galchenyuk surprisingly had the second-lowest percentage.

NEUTRAL-ZONE POSSESSION-DRIVING PLAYS PER-60
Moving the puck successfully through the neutral-zone is a necessary ingredient in maximizing offensive-zone puck-possession plays, while minimizing defensive-plays in the defensive-zone. The specific relationship between certain neutral-zone metrics and scoring-chances were communicated a previous post.
This graph will focus on both how often and how successfully each Montreal Canadiens player drives puck-possession through the neutral-zone. Only successful neutral-zone open-ice dekes, east/west passes, and north/south passes were used in calculating each players success-rate, while redline and offensive-blueline carries were included to help quantify each player's contribution per-60.
Other neutral-zone puck-possession metrics such as dump-in were not used, as they do not result in a team moving the puck through the neutral-zone with control.
Only even-strength events were used in this post. The post includes data from every Montreal Canadiens 2013-14 regular season and 2014 playoff game. A list of all the events tracked within my system can be found here.
As a team, the Habs averaged 74.7 neutral-zone possession-plays per-60 in games where they out-chanced the opposition at ES, while averaging 73.6 in games where they were out-chanced.
Subban led all defensemen in neutral-zone possession-driving plays per-60. Eller led all centres, while Gallagher and Pacioretty led all wingers. 

 CONTROLLED DEFENSIVE-ZONE-EXITS PER-60
The term "good first pass" is thrown around often to describe defensemen. This graph will focus on both how often and how successfully each Montreal Canadiens player moves the puck out of the defensive-zone with puck-possession. Only successful outlet passes, and stretch passes were used in calculating each players success-rate, while defensive-blueline carries were included to help quantify each player's contribution per-60.
Other defensive-zone puck-possession metrics such as d-to-d passes, dump-outs, and dekes were not used, as they do not push possession up-ice, nor do they automatically result in a team moving the puck out of the defensive-zone with control of the puck.
Only even-strength events were used in this post. The post includes data from every Montreal Canadiens 2013-14 regular season and 2014 playoff game. A list of all the events tracked within my system can be found here.
As we can easily see, PK Subban is the Habs most active player when it comes to successfully moving the puck out of the defensive-zone with possession. Subban produced 36.7 successful zone-exits per-60. Andrei Markov produced 33.6 successful zone-exits per-60, while Nathan Beaulieu produced 33.02. Douglas Murray contributed the fewest controlled zone-exits among Habs d-men, as he averaged just 20.5 per-60; over 16-less per-60 than Subban.
Among forwards, Lars Eller averaged  a forward-best 15.3 controlled zone-exits per-60, while Dale Weise averaged 14.8. Rene Bourque (6.6) actually produced fewer controlled zone-exits than George Parros (7.2). 


Back to Featured Articles on Logo Paperblog