As the Great Salt Lake shrinks and scientists worry about toxic dust storms and its potential ecological collapse, Utah state leaders say all options for rescue are on the table.
Rob Sowby, an assistant professor of civil and structural engineering at Brigham Young University, hopes to dismantle one: a pipeline that would pump seawater from the Pacific Ocean to Utah to refill the lake.
"It's really a distraction," Sowby said.
Sowby analyzed the idea in a study published last month in the scientific journal Environmental Research Communications and found that it would cost at least $300 million annually in electricity to pump water more than 600 miles uphill to the Great Salt Lake. The project would require an incredible amount of energy: about 11% of Utah's current energy demand.
Sowby said the study represents the engineering mathematics of the theoretical minimum energy for a pipeline. In reality it would be much more complicated.
"Even the best-case scenario doesn't look good. At that point we can kind of put down our pencils," Sowby said. "I hope this can put the Pacific Pipeline idea to rest."
The real-world consequences of overconsumption and drought have fueled public interest in expensive technical solutions, including many aimed at tapping distant, underutilized water supplies.
Utah is certainly not the first Western state to be seduced by a dream of a mega-project, no matter how far-fetched. The fact that none of the megaprojects have come to fruition in recent decades reveals a hard truth: it's cheaper to save water, and most water experts think Western states will simply have to learn to live with less.
"The era of big dams and big projects is over," said Michael Cohen, a senior fellow at the Pacific Institute, a water-focused nonprofit. "There has been a lot of change in thinking across the West in terms of water conservation, living within people's means and the idea of boundaries - we can't just use whatever we want."
Water import schemes often make headlines but rarely attract serious attention.
In the 1990s, a Los Angeles County regulator launched the export of water from the Columbia River, which divides Oregon and Washington in its southern part, to send water to Southern California. Actor William Shatner reignited the issue in 2015 when he said he planned to launch a crowdfunding effort for the $30 billion idea.
Arizona officials asked Congress in 2021 to investigate pumping floodwater from the Mississippi into the Colorado River basin, according to The Associated Press. More recently, California officials have studied and dropped the idea of pumping seawater from the coast to fill the state's shrinking Salton Sea.
Cohen said that large water import programs, while technically possible, rarely break the bank when compared to conservation projects and would take 20 to 30 years to obtain permits and build.
"They are harmful because people don't spend time and effort finding realistic solutions," Cohen said.
Instead, he sees imports as a zombie idea that will occasionally come back to life as long as water remains a scarce resource.
In Salt Lake City, "I think we're going to hear more pipeline questions, not less, despite investigations," Cohen said. "People will become increasingly desperate for a solution."
Water levels in Great Salt Lake have been declining since 1986, reaching a new low in the fall of 2022. Drought and human overconsumption of water from the rivers that feed the lake are the biggest problem.
Climate change doesn't help. In January, local researchers issued a dire warning that the lake "as we know it" was "on track to disappear within five years."
The lake's water volume has dropped by more than two-thirds since pioneers settled in the Salt Lake Valley, leaving much of its surface exposed and eroding.
Scientists are concerned that dust blowing from the exposed lake bottom could pose significant risks to human health. The dust contains toxic metals and scientists are still trying to understand what increasing exposure means for people in nearby communities.
Lawmakers have funneled hundreds of millions of dollars and new legislation into conservation projects intended to help reform the way Utah uses its water. Meanwhile, some lawmakers have explored ideas to create a new water supply, through ideas like cloud seeding, new reservoirs and a potential pipeline, which was chosen as a subject of legislative inquiry.
Sowby said he became concerned because the idea of a pipeline seemed to have a strong impression on the public.
"It's one of those things. At first it sounds ridiculous, but the more it's talked about, the more it becomes a reality," Sowby said. "It started to attract the attention of policymakers and private financiers."
SoSowby and his team ran the numbers and used the most conservative and generous idea for a potential project.
The team assumed that the 10-foot pipeline would run from the San Francisco Bay Area directly to Salt Lake City and rise about 4,000 feet to the Great Salt Lake, which would provide about a third of the recommended inflow to the lake. deliver.
Sowby said the study considers an unrealistic, straight pipeline that does not rise and fall with topography or go around obstacles. The study also does not take into account the cost of land, the cost of construction or the challenge of obtaining permits.
Pumping water uphill would require a huge power supply. Given Utah's coal-rich electricity supply, the energy generated to run the pumps would produce the same greenhouse gas emissions as 200,000 passenger vehicles, the study said.
"I hope it will bring some more positive attention to more viable alternatives," Sowby said. "We need to do things here at home to better manage our water use."
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
