This election, as with so many others, is going to come down to the swing states.
In the last four Presidential elections since 2000, ten states have voted for both a Democratic and a Republican candidate.
They are: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.
Click to enlarge. Last four Presidential elections showing trends over time.
Nevada: R2 D2. This state is going over from Republican to Democrat, and the momentum is with the Democrats. A lot of Hispanics and Californians have moved into the Las Vegas area, turning this long-term red state blue. Conservative -> liberal.
Colorado: R2 D2. One more long-term Republican state going Democrat. Same as Nevada. This state is going Democratic. Many people are moving to the Denver area from all over the country, and the city is getting a reputation as a hip place to live. Also many Hispanics are moving here. Conservative -> liberal.
New Mexico: D3 R1. This state is going over to the Democrats in a major way. Not sure what is happening except maybe that a lot of the Hispanics who live there are starting to vote more. Otherwise it’s a mystery. Many Hispanics have always lived in this state, but it was still a conservative state. Strange. Conservative -> liberal.
Iowa: D3 R1. Headed over to the Democrats. I am thinking this state is lost to Republicans. This state is going Democratic in a big way, but I really do not understand why. Conservative -> liberal.
Indiana: R3 D1. Long-term Republican state starting to waver a bit. I think this state will stay Republican for now though. Conservative.
Ohio: R2 D2. Another Republican state going Democratic. Not sure why that is, but Rust Belt states in general are becoming impoverished, and whatever is left of the White working class there is voting Democrat. There is some very ugly voter suppression going on here, verging on crime. Conservative -> liberal.
Florida: R2 D2. Swing state teetering back and forth between Republicans and Democrats. Doesn’t lean one way or the other at the moment. In other words, it is up for grabs. Heavy duty voter suppression going on here. I do not know the history of this state, so I cannot tell you if it is Democrat going Republican or vice versa. I am also not sure of demographic trends. No trend, evenly divided.
Virginia: R2 D2. Very long-term Republican state going Democratic. Briefly the state is becoming less conservative. This was always a conservative White Southern cracker state just like the rest of them. There are many Blacks but not enough to swing elections, which is the typical case in the South. However, in recent years, a large number of tech firms have moved into Virginia. The workers who have moved here to work in this industry are coming from the North and are young, hip, moneyed middle and upper middle class White SWPL types who were Democrats in their previous state and continue to vote Democrat after moving to Virginia. Conservative -> liberal.
North Carolina: R3 D1. Appears to be slowly moving from Republican to Democrat, but the transition is just starting, so it is still mostly voting Democrat. Similar demographic trend to Virginia of young SWPL types moving into North Carolina for good jobs, in this case in the Research Triangle in the center of the state. But the longterm trend in this state looks bad for Republicans. Conservative, teetering.
New Hampshire: D3 R1. Very longterm Republican and conservative state is now apparently lost to Republicans for the forseeable future. The long-standing notion that New Hampshire is a conservative state needs to be re-evaluated. I do not know what happened here except that New Hampshire has apparently joined the rest of the Northeast and has turned into a normal Northeastern state. Conservative -> liberal.
Conclusion: As you can see, all ten swing states are either static, teetering Republican or heading from Republican to Democrat. There is not one single state that is teetering Democrat. Nor is there a single state anywhere in the US that is going from Democrat to Republican. The future looks nightmarish for Republicans, but their response to this is to go more and more rightwing, going against the trend in the nation.
70% of the swing states are becoming more liberal over time, and one Republican state is teetering towards becoming more liberal. One state is still Republican, but things are getting a bit shaky. Another state is completely up for grabs and does not appear to be trending either liberal or conservative. So it looks like the country as a whole is becoming more liberal over time. The Republican response to a nation becoming more liberal over time is to pivot hard to the Right. Lemmings, anyone?
Bottom line: Elephants are going extinct.
