After tracking the sideways correction in March, the final thrust to a new high in May, and successfully using the 50 DMA to determine whether there was one more high coming (which we were agnostic about from a long term standpoint) after the sell into June, we have arrived at the time for frame for the Back Test of the November low to begin. There may be another short term push into the August 7 turn or not; however, what we saw today indicates the move may already be upon us. Here is the DOW chart:
I have refined the scenarios presented in the most recent post. Here are the scenarios, with the orange scenario (starting now, or after one more short term push higher) being the preferred.
As indicated, the back test of the November 2012 low will indicated whether this is a new wave in a bull market, or a continuation of the bear market. If the November 2012 low holds, it is a bull market until proven otherwise. If the November 2012 low falls, the big bear has awakened from its slumber.
I will be updating the short term positions when I return either Friday or on Monday. Hope your summer is treating you well.
Peace, Om,
SoulJester
