Democrats and media talking heads are celebrating the passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill. I understand why. The bill was badly needed by the country, and it gives the illusion that Democrats can get things done in Congress.But I'm not at all sure the passage right now was a good thing, because of the effect it will have on the Build Back Better Bill. The BBB bill might even be a more important bill, because it would help millions of Americans. It would make the economy fairer to working and lower middle class workers -- making their lives easier, and even pulling many out of poverty.
I don't doubt that Democratic moderates in the House will keep their word, and pass the bill in about 10-14 days. But then the bill will go to the Senate -- and that's where the real problem begins.
When Democrats won the White House and control of both houses of Congress, many progressives saw the opportunity to finally pass transformative legislation -- legislation that would close the wealth and income gap, and give most Americans a path to the middle class.
They really wanted a $10 trillion bill (over 10 years), paid for by higher taxes on the rich and corporations. But they know they had to compromise to get the legislation passed. They negotiated their bill down to $6 trillion, then to $3.5 trillion, and finally to $1.7 trillion. No one can say the progressives weren't willing to compromise. They compromised far more than those in the party opposing the bill.
The biggest opponents were Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema -- Senate Democrats. President Biden told progressives that he believed Manchin and Sinema would vote for the $1.7 trillion version of the bill, but neither has actually publicly said they would vote for it -- and Manchin has been very vocal about opposing elements of it.
The only real power that progressives in the House had was their refusal to pass the infrastructure bill until the BBB bill was also passed (and both Manchin and Sinema want infrastructure passed, because they had negotiated it with GOP). But by passing the infrastructure bill before the BBB bill, and without getting public assurances from Manchin (and Sinema), the progressives have given up the only leverage they had.
Now Joe Manchin has complete control over the Build Back Better bill, and he can do what he wants with it (because Democrats can't pass it without his vote).
Let's be clear about one thing. Joe Manchin is not a moderate. He's a conservative -- and conservatives do not care about making things easier for anyone (but the rich and corporations). They want the status quo to remain intact. And Manchin's statements show that is what he wants. He doesn't want transformative change.
He will undoubtably try to amend the House version of the BBB bill, and he has the power to do that. The 50 Republicans will be happy to help him cut large portions out of the bill. They won't vote for it in the end, but they'll love to help Manchin make it a much worse and less effective bill.
Manchin doesn't like paid family leave, so he'll likely cut it from the bill.
Manchin has millions invested in fossil fuels (especially coal), so he'll likely cut out the climate change portions of the bill.
Manchin's daughter is the CEO of a Big Pharma company, so he'll likely cut out the negotiating of drug prices.
And he probably won't stop there. He's already said the bill would create an entitlement society.
I don't think he'll directly kill the BBB bill (although he might), but what's left of the bill after he puts it on his chopping block will certainly not be transformative. It will be a sham that doesn't help anyone much (except maybe for the rich and corporations who will not be forced to pay for a transformative bill).
The Build Back Better bill is now on life support, and "Doctor" Manchin is in charge of its health. That's not good!
