Monday Market Movement – Expiration Week Begins (EOQ Next!)

Our Big chart covers a 3-month period and our first quarter is already winding down and look how ridiculously UP it has been so far.  First it went up, then it went up some more, then we paused in February and then we went up and up again so far in March.  For the bears, this is like looking at a roulette wheel that has come up black 6 times in a row and they bet red because it HAS to go red sooner or later.  

That's called the "gambler's fallacy," the belief that if deviations from expected behavior are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely. 

The reality is, in a random outcome (which the stock market generally is on a short-term basis), the odds of any single day or week being up or down are going to be 50:50, irregardless of what happened the week or weeks or months or years before. 

But, even worse for the bears, the market is not completely random.  It can be affected by outside factors.  In this particular case, we have the Fed pouring $85Bn a month into the economy and that drives a demand for equities and rates are low so bonds are out of favor (driving a demand for equities) and the Global Economic Outlook is iffy so commodities are not strong (driving the demand for equities) and neither Asia nor Europe look as strong as the US (driving the demand for US equities – especially the Russell, which does less business with Europe and Asia).  

So, rather than a roulette wheel, what the bears are doing is watching a pool fill up with water and the Fed has an $85Bn hose feeding it and bonds are transferring to stocks for another $11Bn a month and money is moving from commodities to stocks at about $3Bn a month and more people are working and 401K money is pouring in and sideline money is pouring in and corporations are buying back their own stocks… Well, you get the picture.  

The bears are standing around the pool and watching the water rise and essentially betting it will start to sink – simply because it's risen a lot recently.  If YOU were betting water in a pool would stop rising then you'd probably…
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