I told our Members this would be a good week to take a vacation.
We have 7 Fed Speakers around the release of the Fed Minutes on Wednesday afternoon but now we're mostly wondering if the rate hikes will be 0.25% or 0.5% and the rest is getting baked in. ISM and PMI tomorrow and really no other significant data is coming in, nor do we have many companies reporting earings. As Jerry Lee used to sort of say "There's a whole lotta nothin' going on."
Earnings Reports are mostly from companies who count December as the first month of their year and we're a lot more concerned with guidance at this point. Next week is a very different story as we have CPI and PPI, Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment – all market-moving reports and the Banks start reporting on Thursday next week but then Friday is Good Friday and we're closed but make sure you are well-rested on the 18th as earnings and data will surely be hitting the fan then.
Over in Europe, we're already seeing inflation at 7.5% for March, up from 5.9% in February, led by a 11.7% rise in Energy Costs that is not looking like its going away any time soon as the war rages on in Ukraine. The repurcussions from this war will be felt all year – even if it stops now as crops have not been planted and supply chains have been further interrupted and these things are likely to get worse before and if they get any better.
Also getting worse is the drought in California as snowpack this year is at 39% of average and that's the wost level in 1,200 years – so pretty bad. According to Dr. Schwartz, who wrote the report:
"Many people have a rather simplistic view of drought as a lack of rain and snow. That’s accurate — to an extent. What it doesn’t account for is human activity and climate change that
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