Is the UK Going to Stay in the EU?

Yes. Regardless of whether there is a Yes or a No vote (or Cameron bottles it and claims enough of a victory with his renegotiation). Okay so, admittedly Douglas Carswell has a great sci fi vision vision of a beefed up Singapore and at least he's honest on migration; 

“Our grandparents’ generation had to get to grips with the idea of importing strawberries from Spain and mangetout from Kenya. Today we live in a world where labor mobility is inevitable, and unless you want to become like North Korea you need to accept it. You can no more ban labor mobility than food imports.”

And diet Trump (Nigel Farage, obvs) has a slightly more scary vision of a little England (and to a Scot it sounds very England centric, odd that to a Scot he seems to want his own mini EU) that restricts migration and withdraws from the common market to regain control of "sovereignty". I get that there are people left behind by globalisation. I just don't have a lot of sympathy. Across my facebook these seem to be mostly the idiots who dicked around and thought that leaving School in the 90s at 16 and going to work in the box folding factory was a job for life. Under the UKIP migration plan the UK population would shrink by hundreds of thousands of people a year. And a falling population would mean a downsized economy. Which will probably bite all the UKIP voting pensioners who didn't save for their retirement (and sure as buggery didn't pay tax for things like free bus passes and TV tax exemption but somehow this is fairer than not forcing kids into brain mortgages).  And of course Corbyn was quite anti EU until recently. I would imagine a Leftxit would involve a lot of doomed industrial activism and rapid nationalisations and probably some sort of nightmarish. beardy, geography teacher looking revolutionary guard.  And while all that sounds great, if you are pitching something to Netflix to take on Amzon's the Man in the High Castle, it's probably not what is actually going to happen. Or at least not what is actually contingency planned to happen.  The most likely outcomes are;  1. Can we be Switzerland? 2. No? Okay we'll be Turkey then.  Switzerland first. Switzerland is a Schengen signatory and accepts free movement (though they have some restrictions on new entrants). Switzerland signs up to almost all EU law, and pays almost as much into the EU as the UK does. Being outside the EU it can choose not to apply EU regulations but in practical terms, i.e. because it would lose access to the EU market in those areas, it has have never actually done this. The big disadvantages here are no voice in EU decision-making and no access to the EU's international trade deals. Turkey next. Turkey has a customs union with the EU. It neither benefits from nor offers free movement to the EU, and doesn’t need to apply all EU law. However, it doesn’t get access to the single market or EU global trade but is still forced to open its market to everyone the EU strikes a deal with.  The idea that the UK is going to become some isolationist bastion in the Atlantic and somehow ignore the huge trading block 20 miles as the celeb swims off the south east coast is just delusional madness.  So Turkey or Switzerland (Switzerland is proxying for the whole EFTA). For me, Switzerland is the most likely outcome of a no vote but it is also the version that will feel identical to a Yes.