'The lead-up' is how Premier League marketers have branded the denouement of this disjointed but compelling campaign. In reality, that feels like too staid an image. With three regular rounds to go, we face a crazy battle for the play-offs.
Mathematically, eight out of ten parties still join in with a shout. Realistically, six probably remain in the fight. Either way, the business end will be extremely exciting.
1 Northampton Saints (54 points)
If they were a batsman, Saints would see it as a beach ball. And after losing in two consecutive semi-finals on the road, they will focus on finishing first or second to secure a play-off at Cinch Stadium. That job is almost done and could even be ratified this weekend, depending on results across the country. Their five-point cushion is well deserved and if they put 40 points on Leicester Tigers with a mixed squad they should be at full strength, or close, to face Harlequins at Twickenham. A win there should allow Phil Dowson to manage his resources for rounds 17 and 18, which follow the showdown with Leinster. He won't want to go to Bath at all because he needs something.
Predicted running-in results: Two wins, over Harlequins and Gloucester, before the frontliners are wrapped in cotton wool for round 18.
2 bathrooms (49 points)
Stopping Exeter Chiefs was a testament to Bath's depth and the tactical clarity of Johann van Graan and coaches like JP Ferreira and Lee Blackett. Charlie Ewels was excellent and reinforced the quality of the five back-forwards. As impressive as Orlando Bailey has been, with Ben Spencer leading the charge from scrum-half and Max Ojomoh continuing to impress, the injuries to Finn Russell and Cameron Redpath will be felt at some point. Van Graan hopes both will be available again before the end of the season, which could be the difference between Bath making it to the Premier League final and dropping out before that stage.
The story continues
Predicted run-in results: Undone by Saracens before righting the ship with wins over Newcastle and Northampton to secure third place.
3 Saracens (47 points)
A mixed performance against Gloucester's green line-up included a special title defense. Saracens have been unconvincing for most of this season, both for entire matches and for periods within them. However, it is clear that no one with that much knowledge can go into business. And they are well aware that a home semi-final is extremely valuable. Seeing off Owen Farrell and other departures will spur them on and The Rec on Friday night, against a worn but robust Bath, represents a bellwether as to whether they can hold things together strongly enough to mount a realistic challenge. The problem for Mark McCall is that Saracens have fallen short in a few other major challenges this season.
Predicted running-in results: Three from three to sneak into second place, even if that could be seen as blind faith based on form. They do not have to rotate outside the Champions Cup.
4 Bristol Bears (45 points)
While he remained measured after the dismantling of Newcastle Falcons, Pat Lam must have felt as if his bears were charging down the hill. They kick much less and return to the complicated, multi-faceted phase game that became their trademark in the era of Charles Piutau and Semi Radradra. Acquisitions such as Gabriel Oghre, Benhard Janse van Rensburg and Max Malins have all been dealt with. A 'fearless' mentality has led to five consecutive Premiership victories. And while there are caveats - the rapid trot included victories over the alternate Northampton and Bath teams and over lowly pair Gloucester and Falcons - Bristol's fate lies in their own hands. Win and they're in.
Predicted run-in results: Edging Tigers, one way or another, would likely offer two chances to secure the top four, with Saracens and Harlequins. Revenge for 'Bristanbul' - the 2021 semi-final that saw Bristol's hearts broken by Harlequins? That would be a story.
5 Harlequins (44 points)
Losing by two bonus points in Salford, which provided excitement with a comeback that kept their top-four push alive, sums up Harlequins quite well. Who knows which way their roller coaster ride will go next? They enjoy playing at Twickenham and host Northampton there on Saturday afternoon. Both clubs have the Champions Cup semi-finals the following weekend and squads full of England internationals facing a grueling year. The Exeter trip in Round 17 looks extremely tough, with a possible shoot-out against Bristol the following weekend to cap off a brutal run.
Predicted running-in results: Harlequins have done extremely well to stabilize themselves after a catastrophic loss to Saracens in Tottenham. Now, however, they have a hugely difficult domestic run with a trip to Toulouse sprinkled into the mix. Any mistake will cost them dearly. While they won't lack belief or effort, remaining undefeated may be beyond them.
6 Sales Sharks (42 points)
Besides Bristol, Sale are the team that will make you rethink your perception of this season. It felt like they were significantly clumsier than last season, with long-term injuries such as that of Dan du Preez proving disruptive. And yet the win over Harlequins was their ninth; only four clubs have more. A paltry win of six bonus points - only Newcastle Falcons have fewer - has seen them withdraw. Their total of 44 attempts is only better than that of the bottom two teams. With Bevan Rodd, Ben Curry, Raffi Quirke and Joe Carpenter all fit again, Sale could cause an upset.
Predicted run-in results: Wins over Newcastle, in the Steve Diamond derby, and Leicester should keep them in contention until the final round, where Saracens could well oust them in a repeat of last season's decider.
7 Exeter Chiefs (40 points)
Rob Baxter suggested a Champions Cup thrashing in Toulouse was a harsh but fair reflection on where his young team are. The loss to Bath on Saturday night, in which Alfie Barbeary and the rest of Van Graan's jackallers stole six rucks, underlined that Chiefs remain a work in progress, albeit a promising one. Maybe they are also tiring. The play-offs may be out of reach, but wherever they finish, Baxter will be rightly proud that they have laid a solid foundation.
Predicted run-in results: They need to be faultless from here to have a chance of extending their season and this weekend they showed which kinks need to be ironed out. Two wins are possible, and Exeter could derail Harlequins' season on May 11, but a top-four finish is now likely gone.
8 Leicester Tigers (39 points)
They need snookers and then some, with Dan McKellar admitting he will prioritize performance over results for the rest of a frustrating campaign. A revamp of their coaching team, after Steve Borthwick transferred most of his staff to England, ran into a problem with the absence of Alan Dickens. Furthermore, injuries have made it difficult to enable consistency in the squad. Solomone Kata's red card caused a late slump on Saturday, but in reality Leicester look significantly inferior to Saints at the moment.
Predicted run-in results: McKellar needs an immediate response at home, but Bristol must be confident of continuing a sparkling run and be able to do so. Selling out is a tough ask at the moment, so Tigers could settle for a one-for-three finish by toppling Exeter.
Predicted top four
Barring a freak slump, Saints will finish on top. Below that is an exciting race. This prediction would pit Northampton against Bristol and Saracens against Bath for the semi-finals. Neutrals wouldn't complain.
