The chart above is from RealClearPolitics. It includes only the candidates that have averaged at least 1% in the latest six polls.
Who will win the Democratic presidential nomination? That's anyone's guess right now. But the race is becoming somewhat clearer.
I see the field of 25 candidates as breaking down into three groups.
The first group is composed of Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg. These candidates eat of slightly over 77% of the current support from Democrats (and Independents likely to vote in the Democratic primary). I think there is at least an 80% chance that the Democratic candidate will be one of these five.
The second group is composed of Beto O'Rourke, Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Andrew Yang, Tulsi Gabbard, Amy Klobuchar, and Tom Steyer. The first six are pretty consistently out-polling the rest of the field. I added Steyer because he's spending $100 million in the primary campaign -- and that's enough money to probably put him in this group. I think there's about a 15% chance that one of these candidates can break out and make a good run at becoming the nominee.
That leaves 13 candidates, and so far, none of them are polling well enough to be included in the third Democratic debate (in September). I think most, or all, of these candidates will likely have dropped out by the time the caucuses and primaries start early next year. I give about a 5% chance (and that's being generous) that one of them could become the nominee.
That's how I see the race right now. Do you think I'm wrong? If so, feel free to tell me what you think.
