The British love the Mediterranean. For 75 years we have been flocking to the Costa del Sol, the French Riviera and the Greek Islands to bathe in their azure waters and enjoy the summer sun.
But last summer, things changed. Southern Europe witnessed one of the worst heat waves in living memory: Cerberus. In some places the mercury reached 45°C. The Acropolis in Athens was closed to tourists. Forest fires raged across Sicily and Rhodes, where sun seekers were forced to evacuate. At the end of July 2023, the Mediterranean Sea seemed like the last place on earth you would want to be.
Fast forward to January 2024, and vacation companies are reporting the strongest booking numbers since before the pandemic. Advantage Travel Partnership, which represents dozens of UK travel agencies, said January 13 was its busiest day ever for bookings. Will the British holiday crowd remain loyal to the Mediterranean, or have our heads been turned?
To find out, we spoke to 40 of the UK's biggest holiday companies. Some presented hard booking data, others provided risers and fallers, while others could only reveal search statistics due to market sensitivities. In short, the below is certainly not exhaustive, but provides a prediction of where people are booking and looking for the upcoming holidays. An exit poll of January sales, if you will.
Spain remains hot
'In Spain I would sooner be a foreigner than in most countries,' wrote George Orwell in 1938. It seems we are all still in agreement now that Spain will retain its crown as our favorite holiday destination.
The Canary Islands, Balearic Islands and mainland Spain were by far the most mentioned destinations in our survey, despite some holiday favorites such as Lanzarote expressing a desire for a higher caliber of tourists last year. Mallorca and Tenerife are the two top destinations according to Tui, while easyJet Holidays names Lanzarote, Tenerife, Alicante, Malaga and Valencia among the top options. Of the top ten destinations presented by holiday aggregator Travel Supermarket, eight are in mainland Spain or on a Spanish island.
The story continues
Despite a rocky peak season in 2023, the rest of the Mediterranean remains popular. Despite last summer's forest fires, Greece and Turkey are among the top European countries. Portugal also received a number of mentions (more notably than Italy and France combined), with Advantage Travel Partnership showing that bookings to the country are up 54 percent compared to the same week last year.
Cooling off interest in Iceland (and the Middle East)?
As the Mediterranean's popularity continues to rise, some destinations will inevitably experience a relative slowdown in 2023. Iceland, for example, has fallen out of Original Travel's top ten destinations for January bookings - perhaps due to the ongoing volcanic eruption. that has made headlines. A number of agents are reporting high bookings for Norway, which could benefit from the Icelandic jitters: "Adventures under the Northern Lights in particular seem to be having a moment," reported Much Better Adventures, which named Norway as a top destination for 2024.
Explore, the adventure travel tour operator, said: "It's not surprising that the Middle East is in trouble - last year's best-selling trip, Discover Jordan, dropped out of the top five in January." The UAE and Egypt, on the other hand, appear resilient, with Holiday Extras reporting 65 percent and 87 percent year-on-year increases in bookings for these destinations, each of which was mentioned several times in our research.
In it for the long term
A consistent message from tour operators and travel agents surveyed is that long-haul travel is proving to be very popular - suggesting that climate issues are not yet impacting the travel plans of the majority of Britons. Thomas Cook reports that this time last year, only four percent of bookings were to long-haul destinations. This year, long-distance holidays account for more than 11 percent of January income.
"Families may be willing to fly outside the Mediterranean for cooler temperatures in the summer - in Mauritius, for example, it is generally 25-30 degrees Celsius in the summer months," says Emma King, head of product at Thomas Cook.
In our January exit polls, the Caribbean islands (particularly Barbados) proved popular, as did the Maldives, India, the US, Mexico, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. Japan in particular looks set to become a leading destination for 2024, with the Ultimate Travel Company reporting a 167 percent increase, while Newmarket Holidays says its Japan Unveiled itinerary is a bestseller. This probably has to do with the fact that Japan had only been open to tourists for a few months in January 2023.
Interestingly, a handful of operators are seeing a slight decline in bookings in France. Visit Britain's annual trends report predicted: "The Olympic and Paralympic Games in Paris in July and August could displace some inbound traffic if securing hotel rooms and access to key tourist attractions proves to be a challenge."
The verdict
All of the above means good news for the travel industry, and also good news for holidaymakers. Last year came close, but fell slightly short of 2019's record-breaking tourism figures. From our exit polls, it seems likely that pre-pandemic highs will be surpassed in 2024. Tui, easyJet Holidays and Jet2holidays have secured millions of extra seats for this summer: these appear to be filling up, but if they do, sell out, especially in an ongoing cost of living crisis, these companies will have to price right to get. Don't be surprised if last-minute, 1990s-style savings emerge as the summer season approaches.
As for where to book? If you're looking for some short-distance sunshine without encountering too many other British tourists, we noticed there's no overt hype around Croatia, Cyprus, Montenegro and Malta - each of which offers similar climates to their own. popular counterparts in Spain, Greece and Turkey, but without exactly the same quantities falling this summer.
