Tonight, five of the six Democratic candidates for president will participate in their first debate (Lessig was not invited by CNN to participate). And Hillary Clinton enters that debate with a large lead over all of her opponents. According to the latest national poll, Clinton leads her closest competitor, Bernie Sanders, by about 19 points. That's with Joe Biden being considered a candidate. If you take Biden out of the mix, then Clinton's lead over Sanders grows to 24 points.
Will Biden be a candidate? He's still toying with the idea, but has not jumped in yet (and will not participate in the debate). I think he's waiting to see if either Clinton or Sanders commits an egregious error in tonight's debate. If they do commit an error that hurts their candidacy, then he might enter the race. If they don't, I think he'll stay out of the race.
And the way I see it -- neither Clinton nor Sanders is likely to commit an error. Sanders supporters are counting on their candidate to win the debate big, and et his campaign moving again (after being stuck in the mid-twenties for quite a while now). I doubt that will happen either. Clinton is an experienced debater. I expect both Clinton and Sanders to do a good job in the debate -- and both to remain about where they currently are in the polls after the debate.
CNN has been talking for a couple of days now about how big an opportunity this is for the minor candidates (O'Malley, Webb, Chafee) to jumpstart their own campaigns. Again, I disagree. I'm sure they will probably come out swinging in the debate, but I doubt it'll do them much good. This primary election is between Sanders and Clinton (and perhaps Biden if he enters the race). Everyone else is just wasting their time and money.
These charts were made from the results of a new CBS News Poll -- done between October 4th and 8th of a random national sample of 343 Democratic primary voters, and has a margin of error of 6 points.
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And below is the last pre-debate net favorability rating among Democrats for Clinton and Sanders. The net favorability rating is favorability minus unfavorability (and the higher the number the better).
Note that Democrats rate Clinton's net favorability 13 points higher than Sanders'. Clinton also has a significant margin among women, Blacks, Hispanics, moderates, conservatives, 30 to 49 year-olds, 50 to 64 year-olds, and those 65 & older.
Sanders has an advantage among Whites and those 18 to 29 years-old.
Men and liberals view both candidates with an equal net favorability.
This is from a new Gallup Poll -- done between September 12th and October 10th, and has a margin of error of about 4 points.
