Blog : Steelers Drafts, A Round-by-Round Analysis, Since 2006

It has been said by some here in this particular Steelers fan community that it would be prudent for the Steelers to lose the final game of the 2012 campaign in order to secure a higher position in the draft. The Steelers couldn’t be blamed if that was an aim.
Yet, has the front office led by General Manager Kevin Colbert merited the usage of the higher draft selection that a loss would bring?
With that question in mind, I have taken it upon myself to look at the last seven player entry drafts by the Steelers and gauge the success, or lack thereof, of the past seven years of draft history.
I am willing to assign an average success rate from round to round with the following percentages: Round 1: 90%; Round 2: 70%; Round 3: 50%; Round 4: 40%; Round 5: 30%; Round 6: 20%; Round 7: 10%
I am also willing to assume the success of the 2011 and 2012 drafts, unless otherwise noted or unless the players no longer hold a roster spot, since both classes have yet to establish themselves for the most part. I have also given some leeway to the 2010 Draft class as well.
Conversely, I am not willing to give a successful grade (beyond the first round) to any players who are not still here. The assumption being that the success of first round players, whether still here or not, should still speak for itself. And, if the pick were successful beyond that, there is a reasonable expectation that any player drafted since 2006 would likely still occupy a roster spot.
At the end, I will add a success percentage for each individual year based on the likelihood of the players drafted in each of those years still occupying a roster spot to start the 2013 season and an overall percentage based on how many from that draft class actually made a contribution to the Steelers for longer than a single season.
With that, let’s take a look at our team’s recent drafting prowess, shall we?
Round 1
2006- Santonio Holmes
2007- Lawrence Timmons
2008- Rashard Mendenhall
2009- Ziggy Hood
2010- Maurkice Pouncey
2011- Cameron Heyward
2012- David DeCastro
Analysis: Not a bad looking group, with the exception of Mendenhall and, possibly, Hood (not willing to throw baby Ziggy out with the bath water just yet). That said, you’d better hit with your 1st Round pick in this league anyway, so Colbert doesn’t necessarily get a pass for being good in the 1st Round. When you have a team that builds through the draft like the Steelers, every round counts.
Total grade: 6 out of 7
Total percentage: 86%
Round 2
2007- LaMarr Woodley
2008- Limas Sweed
2010- Jason Worilds
2011- Marcus Gilbert
2012- Mike Adams
Analysis: Aside from Woodley in ’07, this group has either failed or has yet to establish themselves. Worilds needs to do just that by the end of next season (in truth, the Steelers need to see a Jason Worilds they have yet to see in 2013). It would be nice. Therefore, I am only willing to give Worilds half of a grade since it can be assumed at this point that he should have established himself to one side or the other by now being a second round pick. In truth, we should all know what we have in him by the end of next season, at latest. Gilbert and Adams are still (mostly) young. It would help the Steelers if either one or both stepped up and took ownership of the LT job. But, as a group, even with five players this group seems lacking at the moment and that isn’t exactly good for the second to highest round.
Total grade: 3½ out of 5
Total percentage: 70%
Round 3
2006- Anthony Smith, Willie Reid
2007- Matt Spaeth
2008- Bruce Davis
2009- Kraig Urbik, Mike Wallace, Keenan Lewis
2010- Emmanuel Sanders
2011- Curtis Brown
2012- Sean Spence
Analysis: 10 selections since 2006 and, really only three names (Wallace, Lewis and Sanders) stand out to the good of the Steelers order. The first three rounds of the draft, in real terms, should carry the expectation of at least being 50 % successful. While the jury is still largely out on Brown and Spence, the Steelers, at best, will only meet the 50% number and not exceed it. With the almost certain prospect of Wallace not being in Pittsburgh next year, that would drive the number down again. So, entering the 2013 campaign, the only real proven successes on this list that will still be likely to be with the team are Lewis and Sanders. That does not equal high praise for Mr. Colbert or his front office.
Total grade: 5 out of 10
Total percentage: 50%
Round 4
2006- Willie Colon, Orien Harris
2007- Daniel Sepulveda, Ryan McBean
2008- Tony Hills
2010- Thaddeus Gibson
2011- Cortez Allen
2012- Alameda Ta’amu
Analysis: The only two players here who have really stood out from this round would be Colon and Allen, with a special mention going to Sepulveda for what he contributed while he was here. That said, spending a 4th Rounder on a punter should bring with it the expectation that he’d stay on the roster for a while. Allen really has the chance to be a standout in coming years, so he is, arguably, the best hit the Steelers have had with a 4th Round pick since Larry Foote in 2002 in the Colbert era. It remains to be seen whether Colon will still be with the Steelers in 2013. To be fair, he is likely to be although his role cannot yet be determined. That said, going back to the beginning of the Colbert era, the Steelers have not made great use of this round for a team that claims to build effectively through the draft.
Total grade: 3 out of 8
Total percentage: 38%
Round 5
2006- Omar Jacobs, Charles Davis
2007- Cameron Stephenson, William Gay
2008- Dennis Dixon
2009- Joe Burnett, Frank Summers
2010- Chris Scott, Crezdon Butler, Stevenson Sylvester
2011- Chris Carter
2012- Chris Rainey
Analysis: Okay. Beyond those who have yet to legitimately establish themselves, what name on this list really stands out? Unless Sylvester can become the second coming of Andy Russell, there really isn’t a name on this list aside from the departed Willie Gay, and he no longer counts to the Steelers fortunes. And that doesn’t really cut it when the team should be amassing the depth required to circumvent injury at this point of the draft. So far, this is two out of two third day draft rounds that have failed to pass muster in any attempt to build a championship football squad.
Total grade: 3 out of 12
Total percentage: 25%
Round 6
2006- Marvin Philip
2008- Mike Humpal, Ryan Mundy
2009- Sonny Harris
2010- Jonathan Dwyer, Antonio Brown
2011- Keith Williams
Analysis: The 2010 draft saves this round in its entirety since 2006. I am only willing to give the Steelers half credit for Mundy right now, since I fully expect Mundy to not be on the roster next season. Still, this round has only had seven players drafted since 2006 and two of them have sturdy places on the squad right now. In the case of Brown, it is a very sturdy place.
Total grade: 2½ out of 7
Total percentage: 36%
Round 7
2006- Cedric Humes
2007- Dallas Baker
2009- A.Q. Shipley, David Johnson
2010- Doug Worthington
2011- Baron Batch
2012- Toney Clemons, David Paulson, Terrence Frederick, Kelvin Beachum
Analysis: The high percentage here, for the most part, has yet to be proven. Therefore, the percentage here should be taken with a grain of coarse grade sea salt. So far, Paulson and Beachum look like they will be around for longer than a cup of coffee. Realistically, they may prove to be nothing more than role players.
Total grade: 2½ out of 10
Total percentage: 25%
Draft Class Success Percentage, Year-to-year
2006- Current: 22%; Overall: 33%
2007- Current: 25%; Overall: 63%
2008- Current: 0%; Overall: 43%
2009- Current: 33%; Overall: 44%
2010- Current: 60%; Overall: N/A
2011- Current: 86%; Overall: N/A
2012- Current: 78%; Overall: N/A
The 2010 to 2012 drafts do not have an overall grade, since these players are still here under their rookie contracts, so the current and overall percentages would all agree.
As you can see, the best overall percentage comes from 2007, where five out of the eight players chosen made noteworthy contributions to the team. Yet, this is the only draft where the Steelers managed to get above a 50% success rate in the last seven where players weren’t currently under a rookie contract.
The 2008 draft, if current projections hold true, will have nothing to show for it beyond this season. No player from that draft will have played more than 5 years in a Steeler jersey, a truly pathetic statistic.
Between 2006 and 2009, it is likely that only five players (Colon, Timmons, Woodley, Hood and Lewis) drafted out of a total of 33 from those years will still be on the Steelers roster to start the 2013 season, with only Timmons, Woodley and Lewis as sure starters from that list. That would make for a success rate from those drafts totaling 15%. That would be 15% from four drafts where the players would be going into between their fifth and eighth years in the NFL, their so-called “prime” years of service.
Not having done the numbers for the other teams from those time periods, I’d be willing to guess that most NFL teams will have a much larger percentage of their starting lineups in the five to eight year service range than the Steelers.
In fact, the current roster posted from Steelers.com lists 21 players between four and nine years of NFL experience (roughly a little less than half of the current active roster). From that list, ten players (Colon, Miller, Foster, Lewis, Wallace, Timmons, Woodley, Starks, Harrison and Roethlisberger) are listed as starters. From an active roster of 45, that is 22% from that range listed as starters on offense or defense and a total of 45% overall.
In the case of Colon and Miller, they will not finish the season because they are on injured reserve. Foster and Starks are covering for injured players, although in their defense they might be starting either way. Looking at that list, at least three players (Wallace, Starks and Harrison) jump off the page as possible casualties of the Steelers being overextended on the salary cap.
This alarming trend is magnified by the fact that all but one player (Willie Colon) drafted by the Steelers from the 4th Round or later will have been cut from the team prior to the start of next season. For a team that prides itself on building a championship squad through the draft, this would be remarkably paltry production by the Steelers front office.
In truth, the Steelers have done what they’ve needed to do through the first three rounds of the draft in that period. Of the 22 players selected, 15 are still with the team, a 68% success rate. Of those 15, eight are listed as current starters. So, 36% of all players drafted in the last seven years from the top three rounds are currently starting, although some of that number is attributable to injuries and will likely be lower after the season when the salary cap purge begins.
Reality says that the Steelers do okay with the first three rounds of the draft. However, beyond that, the Steelers are not much better than being asleep at the switch when it comes to the third day from the 4th Round and lower. The third day, arguably, is when champions are built. Unless an appreciable sum of the players selected on the last day in the last three drafts can maintain a roster spot, the lion’s share of the current third day in the Colbert era will be scraps which have ended up being thrown away. This is especially true in the stretch between 2003 and 2009, where Colon and Ike Taylor are the only two on the roster from that period drafted after the fourth round.
The Steelers must not take any draft pick within the next two to three years for granted. The young players drafted since 2010 have yet to prove themselves and there is a likely chance that some of those players will achieve nothing greater than what they’ve already achieved, if history holds true.
This means the organization needs to cinch up their talent evaluation skills and be much more precise on the homework they do. In short, in order for the Steelers to become a great team once again, failure as an option has been taken off the table and Kevin Colbert and his hallowed Brain Trust must be much more exact when they select future Steelers in the next two to three drafts, no matter where in the draft order these players come from.