The last four games are of course an extreme but even when adjusting our mindset to correct for such it is clear there is something wrong with the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen. Something has to be done to try and fix the problem before it winds up costing the Pirates too many games. The primary focus of most has been on the individual pitchers and I'll get to that eventually but first I am going to start with the bullpen as a whole.
It is well known that the Pittsburgh Pirates lead the National League with 13 blown saves but what is less well known is that they also lead the National League with 84 save situations. What all of this means is the Pirates are successful (aka don't surrender the lead) in 84.5% of save situations which is the 5th best mark in the National League and slightly better than the 84.0% league average rate.
A few of other points of note in the average relief appearance a Pirates pitcher is asked to get 3.5 outs the highest rate in the NL and they are asked to throw 18 pitches per appearance the third highest rate in the league. Pirates bullpen pitchers are also entering these games in tighter situations than most other teams. With an average leverage index (a stat that measures how crucial a situation the pitcher is entering) of 1.139 the Pirates are putting their bullpen into more stressful situations than anyone in the NL save the St. Louis Cardinals.
Combine all this with the fact the Pirates bullpen has thrown the 4th most innings in the league (229 IP and only 3.2 behind the Mets for 1st) I think we can begin to see a problem. Far too often the Pirates are relying on their bullpen to pitch a lot of innings in what are very tight games. It is of course unavoidable to have the relief pitchers throw in these situations but the frequency in which the Pirates are doing so has to decrease in order to help take some stress off of the bullpen arms. Starters going deeper into games and the offense opening bigger leads would be two good places to start.
With all that being said the Pirates bullpen still has many other problems aside from their quantity and quality of workload. On the surface the 3.34 ERA for the bullpen looks solid enough coming in as the fifth best mark in the NL but once we look beyond that we begin to see some serious cracks. The pen's FIP ranks next to last in the league and its xFIP isn't much better ranking 12th. To top it all off they have also allowed the second highest percentage of their inherited runners to score. Interestingly enough the Pirates bullpen has inherited the fewer runners in the league and has entered the least amount of games with runners on base so to me this points towards Hurdle improperly managing the pen and possibly leaving pitchers out for too long.
Now we move to the individual pitchers and what can possibly be done about them. I'm going to group the pitchers into 4 groups based on when they enter the game.
High Leverage Pitchers
Tony Watson, Mark Melancon, Jason Grilli: You don't have to understand advanced saber stats to know that Watson and Melancon have been the Pirates two best relief pitchers this year by far. To Hurdle's credit he has done well pitching them in important situations as over half of their appearances have come in high leverage situations. As for Grilli he has entered games to the highest average leverage index on the team and that has obviously not worked out so well. He just doesn't quite seem to be the same pitcher he was the last couple years. His strike out rate is now just solid (not unreal) and his walk rate has ballooned. Top it all off his velocity is down a touch. Simply put the Pirates have to transition to a back of the bullpen featuring Watson and Melancon and get Grilli out of high leverage situations. I think Grilli can still be a dependable reliever but right now his days as a back end arm look like they may be over.
Above Average Leverage
Bryan Morris, Justin Wilson: Morris and to a slightly lesser extent Wilson appear to have been the Pirates firmen so far this season coming into games in the 6th and/or 7th innings to put out fires (runners on base). Morris did a poor job in this role allowing 70% of his inherited runners to score while Wilson has done a solid job allowing just 25%. It is rather clear why the Pirates choose to get rid of Morris and despite his solid work thus far in Miami I believe is was the right choice. Wilson comes with a scary looking ERA and has been getting hit pretty hard lately but his underlying stats suggest he should be ok. I'm inclined to give him a pass on his recent outings and let him keep pitching in essentially the role he is now and perhaps even start giving him some more high leverage situations in order to keep Grilli out of that role.
Below Average Leverage
Stolmy Pimentel, Jeanmar Gomez, Jared Hughes: It appears to me Hughes has inherited Morris's role as fireman and so far he has been excellent at it stranding all of his team high 14 inherited runners. Hughes isn't striking out enough people for my liking but as a ground ball machine that can be tolerated. Gomez and Pimentel are front of the bullpen arms and are in the bullpen to provide long relief. Neither pitcher has been particularly good thus far. Gomez though appears to be turning it around from a tough start to the season as his ERA in his last 30.1 inning pitched is 2.67 compared to 7.71 in his first 7 innings pitched. Pimentel hasn't pitched much recording just 13 IP clearly making him the 7th man in the bullpen. At this point though I don't think the Pirates can really afford to be carrying someone like that. It is time to either remove the reigns from him and let him pitch more or to release him and make room for someone in which Hurdle and Searage have more confidence in.
Low Leverage Pitchers
Vin Mazzaro, Casey Sadler: These two have pitched in extremely low leverage situations and considering they were both up mainly just to just eat some innings that makes perfect sense.
What the above all amounts to is the Pirates needing to move Melancon and Watson to the back end while dropping Grilli to the middle with Wilson. An additional move of being more trusting of the low leverage guys (Hughes, Pimentel and Gomez) is also required.
Other options on the table would be moving Worley or Volquez to the bullpen once the starters get healthy and possibly calling up some reinforcements like the suddenly inticing Andy Oliver or someone from the less exciting group of Jake Brigham, AJ Morris, Casey Sadler and Vin Mazzaro. Another move that needs considered is of course acquiring an extra arm should the team reamain in contention. The bullpen as a unit isn't a bad one but it is one that certainly needs some work and some minor tweaks such as lessening the burden on them and properly handing out playing time could go a long way in bettering it.
Not my best piece of writing but its been forever since I posted something and I thought we could use a conversation on what is suddenly a shaky Pirates bullpen.
Originally Posted by battlingbucs
This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. ://">://" onclick="kh99_iqts_show('338010_1'); return false;">Show Quote It is well known that the Pittsburgh Pirates lead the National League with 13 blown saves but what is less well known is that they also lead the National League with 84 save situations. What all of this means is the Pirates are successful (aka don't surrender the lead) in 84.5% of save situations which is the 5th best mark in the National League and slightly better than the 84.0% league average rate.
A few of other points of note in the average relief appearance a Pirates pitcher is asked to get 3.5 outs the highest rate in the NL and they are asked to throw 18 pitches per appearance the third highest rate in the league. Pirates bullpen pitchers are also entering these games in tighter situations than most other teams. With an average leverage index (a stat that measures how crucial a situation the pitcher is entering) of 1.139 the Pirates are putting their bullpen into more stressful situations than anyone in the NL save the St. Louis Cardinals.
Combine all this with the fact the Pirates bullpen has thrown the 4th most innings in the league (229 IP and only 3.2 behind the Mets for 1st) I think we can begin to see a problem. Far too often the Pirates are relying on their bullpen to pitch a lot of innings in what are very tight games. It is of course unavoidable to have the relief pitchers throw in these situations but the frequency in which the Pirates are doing so has to decrease in order to help take some stress off of the bullpen arms. Starters going deeper into games and the offense opening bigger leads would be two good places to start. Interesting stats. It seems obvious that the SP has to become more efficient so it can go deeper. In their defense, however, Hurdle has to get rid of this automatic 7th, 8th and 9th inning approach. 2 recent games come to mind with Locke and Worley in total command and getting yanked anyhow. I know that not every pitcher is going to throw complete games when it's his turn, but once in awhile would be nice.
