Disclaimer: I am in no way shape or form qualified to evaluate baseball players so the below constitutes just my personal opinion from reading a bunch of scouting reports, watching videos and attending a handful of live minor league games. You should take nothing I write as having much more substance than just entertainment value and if you do well you've been warned.
The All Star break law provided me with an opportunity to really dig into some players and try to update my Top 30 Pirates prospects list and that is what you will see below. As the disclaimer above states I am not really qualified to do this but I am entitled to an opinion and that is pretty much all this is. My rankings near the top will probably mostly conform to the typical industry standards but I like to think as we go down that will diverge a bit as I have a tendency to latch on to certain players. Sometimes this works out but most of the time it fails fairly miserably. Without further ado the list ...
1. Tyler Glasnow: There can be no debate who the top prospect in the Pirates system is. Glasnow is a beast and is tearing up the AA level with eye popping numbers. He has even shown strides on improving his control which was always considered his big weakness. I like to say Glasnow is the kind of player who really has no ceiling he legitimately has a shot at being the best pitcher in the game but of course the odds are he falls short of that insane level.
2. Josh Bell: The second and third spots are interchangeable to me but Bell gets the nod mostly due to be farther along in his development process. The bat is there for him to be a well above average hitter and I think the power will eventually come even if the home runs do end up being a little lacking I see him hitting enough doubles to make up for it. However there are legitimate concerns about him including his right handed swing which could possibly make his susceptible to left handed pitching which could ultimately lead to him being a platoon player. He also has a long ways to go defensively at 1B though from what I have seen the reports that state he makes Pedro Alvarez look good are overblown. I think Bell's biggest issue at 1B is going to be just getting reps and in time I think he'll become an average defender there.
3. Austin Meadows: As stated this could really be 2 and 2a as Meadows is right there with Bell. Some people are concerned with the lack of power Meadows is showing but it bears saying he is only 20 years old and is playing in an extremely pitcher friendly Florida State league so I don't think there is all that much to see here. Meadows is an advanced hitter for his age and legitimately looks like he could be a center fielder in the major leagues though in Pittsburgh he could certainly move to a corner if that becomes an issue. Its early but I'm going to go ahead and predict a big breakout from Meadows next year in AA.
4. Jameson Taillon: Taillion was right there with Bell and Meadows but now with two full years of lost development on his record it becomes near impossible to know how to rank him. The talent is still there that he deserves to be ahead of everyone else but the risk is too much for him to be ranked any higher. Hopefully Taillion will be able to pitch some winter ball this offseason and be ready for AAA for the start of the 2016 season and if he is then he immediately becomes a candidate for the number 2 spot on this list.
5. Alen Hanson: For some reason Hanson has seemed to lose his prospect hype and is now a secondary thought for many people but that really isn't fair. Yes he moved off the shortstop position and that does hurt his value but he still has the skill set to be above average on both side of the ball as a 2B and that his huge value. Hanson is in the midst of a very nice season as a 22 year old in AAA and appears ready to help the major league club if an opening arises. Some people think he is a potential future lead off hitter for this club and while he probably could do it I think ideally at first he needs to hit lower in the order but his speed and relatively few strike outs could play there in time.
6. Reese McGuire: There are some people who are majorly concerned that McGuire has shown next to nothing offensively but you really shouldn't be. It is widely known that catchers tend to have their offensive game develop much slower than other positions and at 20 years old McGuire is one of only two catchers to be playing basically everyday at the A+ level and he is far out performing the other in offensive performance. Its not like McGuire is being overmatched at the level he is striking out less than 10% of the time and has non-terrible .314 OBP but he is hitting for zero power. I think offensively McGuire will be fine; he is never going to be a superstar hitter but I think he has it in him to be league average if not a little better and combined with his elite defensive skills that will make him a very good starting catcher.
7. Nicholas Kingham: Kingham is in a similar boat to Taillion as injuries make him hard to know exactly where to rank. Tommy John surgery is usually fairly routine for pitchers now but it isn't always so there is enough risk here that Kingham falls a step below Hanson and McGuire. There really hasn't been anyone else who has majorly stepped up so he remains in the top 7.
8. Harold Ramirez: Ramirez apparently had some conditioning issues at the start of the year but those seem to be behind him now as he has been tearing up the A+ level which as a 20 year old is awfully impressive. The conditioning issues are a bit of a red flag and is probably the main reason he has been unable to pass Kingham yet but if he finishes strong and is still with the Pirates I could see him moving into the top 7 by the end of the year. Now I made a disclaimer in there about being with the Pirates because I expect Ramirez to be one of the trade chips the Pirates are most willing to move this year. This doesn't point to a flaw in Ramirez it is just a byproduct of their solid outfield depth and the need to give something to get something.
9. Kevin Newman: His pro career has gotten off to a terrible start but Newman still looks the part of an advanced hitter who should at the very least be able to stick at 2B if not SS. He is never going to hit for much power but he does seem to have a plus hit tool which as a middle infielder should carry him a long ways. The early results are disappointing but its far too soon to be worried about it.
10. Cole Tucker: Rounding out the top 10 is last year's first round draft pick. Tucker in a lot of ways is similar to Newman but he is far less advanced and has a much better chance of hitting power. Tucker like Newman looks capable of sticking at shortstop but is highly unlikely to become an elite defensive player at the position. At the beginning of the season Tucker looked overmatched in A ball (.608 OPS though May) which as an 18 year old made sense but he has turned it on as late (.791 OPS since June 1st) and that is really encouraging. Much like I predicted with Meadows I think Tucker could really blossom next year.
11. Elias Diaz: Similar to Hanson, Diaz has become kind of a forgotten man. With the way Cervelli has been playing there is no need for Diaz but he is doing a decent job in AAA posting an even .700 OPS which for a strong defensive catcher is just fine. Diaz is never going to hit a ton but it looks like he has a real shot at hitting enough that his plus defense will make him a legitimate starting option in the majors possibly as soon as next year. There isn't really much elite upside here but there is a ton of value in a starting major league catcher.
12. Adrian Sampson: Continue with the Diaz thread Sampson is a low ceiling high floor starting pitcher that could probably step into the back of a lot of rotations right now and improve their rotation. Some times we get so enamored with looking at what a player might become that we ignore what they are now and right now Sampson looks like a useful major league arm and that is huge.
13. Ke'Bryan Hayes: Hayes was the Pirates selection with the compensation draft pick they received for losing Russell Martin. He comes with a great baseball pedigree as his dad, Charlie, was a long time major league 3B and Hayes seems to be a similar mold. Hayes has excelled so far in his brief stint in rookie ball and clearly looks like the Pirates best 3B prospect since Pedro Alvarez. He is a long ways off of course but he is advanced enough where the Pirates will probably consider sending him to A ball next year like they did Meadows, McGuire and Tucker.
14. Clay Holmes: Up until just a few weeks ago Holmes would probably have rankled a bit lower much for the same reason as Taillion and Kingham (coming off TJ surgery) but he is back pitching now and showing no ill effects. Holmes doesn't have the ceiling of Glasnow or Taillon but he very well could be another Kingham type which would of course be welcomed. If Holmes performs well down the stretch the potential is there for him to approach the top 10 but we will have to wait and see.
15. Max Moroff: Moroff is one of those players I clung to and always had ranked higher than everyone else well this year he validated my beliefs in him and is posting a break out year in AA and looks like a very good 2B prospect. Moroff is basically hitting just like Josh Bell while being roughly the same age which considering he is a middle infielder is something very impressive. A #15 ranking is probably more aggressive than most would be with him right now but it is consistent with how I have always viewed him. There is just something about the kid I like.
16. Stephen Tarpley: Tarpley was the big piece in the Travis Snider deal and though he missed some time to begin the season he has been impressive down in A ball. He is easily the Pirates best left handed pitching prospect and looks like he has the upside of a mid rotation starter in the big leagues. I will admit I don't know too much about him but he came into the Pirates system fairly highly regarded and I have seen nothing to change that opinion.
17. Mitch Keller: Keller was a borderline top 10 prospect in the Pirates system entering the season but some player have passed him up and he hasn't pitched yet this year due to forearm tightness which sounds a little too ominous for me. Keller probably has the biggest upside of any pitcher in the Pirates system not names Glasnow or Taillion but he is so far away and so much riskier that he ranks well below them. Should this forearm tightness prove to be something more serious he could drop significantly by the end of the year.
18. Trey Supak: I had debated putting Supak ahead of Keller as right now they both have similar profiles with Supak actually doing some pitching but Keller seems to have a touch more upside so he holds him off for now but if Keller missed too much more time these guys could easily be reversed. For those of you who forgot Keller, Supak and Hinsz (who we will get to later) were the three big high school arms the Pirates selected last year and all remain very high risk but high upside prospects.
19. Willy Garcia: Garcia is yet another prospect who gets overlooked in AAA. He isn't on the Hanson or Diaz level because he isn't as refined and has serious strike out concerns but Garcia looks like a plus offensive player (with plus rigth handed power) and is a solid defender in an outfield corner with a great arm. Garcia repeated AA and initially showed a lot of improvement in the strike out department but it was costing him power so it seemed he kind of reverted back to his old ways. Anyway he earned a promotion to AAA but is currently struggling to adjust to that competition. With a crowded OF in Pittsburgh, Garcia may be little more than trade bait this deadline but if he remains with the team I could see him getting some time at 1B next year in preparation for a 1B/OF bench role.
20. Barrett Barnes: Barnes has a lot of talent of that there is no doubt but since being draft in the first round in 2012 he has trouble staying on the field which severely hurt his prospect status. He has been mostly healthy this year though and is showing why he was taken so highly by hitting very well in A+ but he is a little behind where he should be due to his age so hopefully he will receive a promotion to AA shortly to see if can handle it there and possibly climb up this list.
21. JaCoby Jones: Jones was a borderline top 10 candidate to begin the year and for some still might be but for me I see too big of a striek out problem to rank him that highly until he proves himself in AA. Jones is a similar pfoile to garcia though not as extreme except that he plays SS or at least is trying to get use to the position. It isn't clear if Jones will be able to stick at the position but at the very least he should be able to play 2B or CF and he has enough offensive potential that he could be an above average player at either position. For that to happen though Jones is either going to have to improve upon his strike out rate or find a way to be successful despite it.
22. Yeudy Garcia: The breakout pitcher in the system this year, Garcia was a mere after thought signing with the Pirates as an internation free agent as a 20 year old. He made his pro debut last year in the DSL at 21 and was aggressivel pushed the whole way up to full season ball this year where he has excelled posting great numbers. He is a touch old for the level but not by much and his performance and more importantly his stuff makes him a real pitching prospect. I'm not sure how aggressive others will be with Garcia but to me he is in the conversation for a top 20 spot and just narrowly missed getting one on my list.
23. Jordan Luplow: Luplow is another one of those players I am drawn to for some reason. Coming into the year I had him ranked in the top 15 but the perfomance of other players have pushed him down a bit. The numbers for Luplow don't look too impressive thus far this year but it needs to be pointed out he is learning a new position this year moving from the OF to 3B. That isn't an easy move and while his defense is still shaky he seems to be adjusting and the bat is coming around as he went from having a .700 OPS though May to a .821 OPS since then. There is an advanced bat here and if he can show improvement at 3B next year he could really shoot up the rankings.
24. Jacob Taylor: This is probably another player I like more than most. Taylor is a name a lot of people might not even be familiar with but he was the Pirates 4th round draft pick this past year and to me looks like a steal. Taylor throws in the upper 90s and flashes potential with his off speed stuff. This is a great arsenal for any 20 year old but what makes me even more bullish on Taylor is the fact that pitching full time is something he just started to do this year. With the Pirates developmental system I think there is a lot of untapped potential here and that we could have ourselves a high end pitching prospect in the next two years.
25. Gage Hinsz: Hinsz is the third member of last year's prep trio of starting pitchers but to me is more similar to Taylor than he is the other 2. Hinsz is from Montana and his high school didn't even have a baseball program meaning he is a very raw talent who flashes potential just like Taylor. There really isn little seperating the two and I give Taylor the edge basically because he throws a bit harder.
26. Adam Frazier: I had Frazier around 40 to start the season and while he hasn't even had 200 PA yet this year they have been very impressive in AA and has caused him to rise up the charts a bit. This may be a tad too agressive at the moment but I see Frazier as a potential strong utility player capable of playiong all over the field and those types of players seem to be growing in importance the last couple years. It should be noted Frazier has little power and survives on great contact skills.
27. Steve Brault: The second piece in the Travis Snider trade Brault started off his Pirates career kind of rough getting hit around in his first couple starts at the A+ level but he quickly rebounded and put together a very nice string of starts which got him promoted to AA and he hasn't slowed down there. Brault doesn't possess a lot of upside but to me he looks like someone with a strong chance to become a Jeff Locke tpye starting pitcher possibly even with better command. Locke gets hated on a lot amongst Pittsburgh fans but he is a perfectly useful starter.
28. Kevin Kramer: The 4th and final 2015 draft pick to make my top 30 Kevin Kramer is essentially Kevin Nemwan light. Kramer has a good hitting tool but not to Newman's level and is also probably a touch worse defensively at the position. He does have a tad bit more power than Newman but the difference there is small. Kramer is currently player 2B due to Newman and will likely spend a lot fo tiem there. He is going to have to show good contact skills to move through the system.
29. Adrian Valerio: Valerio isa another of those players I have always liked more than most but I'm thinking this palcement may be about in line with most others now. Valerio is an elite defensive shortstop to the point where he is called by some the ebst in the system right now. That is amazing praise for a n 18 year old. The questions surrounding him have always been can he hit and right now he is doing a solid job of that down in rookie ball. Valerio is someone who I think in 2017 or 2018 is just going to explode on to the prospect map so he has to have a spot in my top 30.
30. Hector Garcia: Last but not least comes yet another player I tend to be higher on than most. Garcia caught my attention the attention of a few others last year by posting an impressive season for Bristol last year as an 18 year old. I was kind of hoping the Pirates would push him to the Power this year but instead he went to the Black Bears and has well dealt with some control issues but he is still striking out a ton of hitters and as a 19 year old facing most college juniors and seniors that is impressive. Garcia is raw and probably won't make many top 30s but I see legitimate upside here. I also need to mention he is left handed which of course only makes him better.
It's hard to argue with these rankings. I haven't updated mine recently but I would think they're similar. I would likely put Frazier, Brault and Y Garcia higher. In fact Y Garcia might be in my top ten.
I've had a lot of Suchy / Luplow debate in my head and while Suchy is performing a bit better right now, I think Luplow will be better in the long run with better power and eventually better contact skills at more premium defensive position.
I think McGuire bat will come along but unless the power comes, his upside is Ryan Hannigan which means his most likli scenario would make him a line drive singles, hitting, solid defensive backup. This is not terrible at catcher since you need your backup twice a week. Think of the value the Chris Stewart adds. Problem is, that's not sexy to get a backup catcher in the middle of the first round.
I don't agree with it, but Kevin hates the system.
