Joe Biden and Donald Trump (Getty Images)
A Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll shows Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by four percentage points in a head-to-head matchup, according to a report at donaldwatkins.com. For a couple of different reasons, I'm going to treat this post a little differently from the norm: (1) The poll, in my view, presents a mishmash of misinformation, and I'm going to try to provide clarity, where it's needed; (2) I personally like Donald Watkins, a longtime and highly successful Alabama attorney, and I admire his online investigative reporting on matters important both to Alabama and the nation. He has provided a true public service in this regard.
I think, however, that Donald and I come at political matters from different angles.He is a political independent and is involved nationally on issues related to independent voting. I, on the other hand, am an unabashed Democrat, and I don't mind being called a liberal progressive, libtard, etc. I will answer to just about any descriptive term, as long as it isn't Republican. Since the Democratic Party is the only major party that seems to take governing seriously these days -- In fact, I see no signs that the Republican Party, in its current state of dysfunction, is even capable of (or interested in) governing, I think a Democratic viewpoint is needed in this discussion, especially since Republicans seem to have abdicated the importance of governance to Democrats in the 2024 presidential race. [Note: Where I add my comments, they will be bracketed in bold/italic type, as I've done with this sentence.]
With that, let's get started with Donald Watkins' post on this subject, which he writes under the headline "Donald Trump Leads Joe Biden in New Wall Street Journal Poll":
An exclusive Wall Street Journal poll released over the weekend found that Donald Trump would lead Joe Biden by 4 percentage points, 47% to 43%, if only those two candidates were on the ballot. Adding five possible third-party and independent candidates to the mix, Trump leads Biden by 6%.
The poll also found 49% of voters think Trump’s policies have helped them, while only 23% of voters think Biden’s policies have helped them.
[How could 47 percent of poll respondents support Trump, especially given that retired four-star general and former Trump chief of staff John F. Kelly recently was quoted: "What’s going on in the country that a single person thinks this guy would still be a good president when he’s said the things he’s said and done the things he’s done? It’s beyond my comprehension he has the support he has.”
[Former Trump press secretary Stephanie Grisham says she is "terrified" of Trump running in 2024, having watched him make inappropriate sexual advances toward women who worked in and around the Oval Office.
[As for 49 percent of poll respondents saying Trump's policies have helped them, that is just over-the-top nuts. I can think of only a few explanations for this: (1) Respondents did not take the poll seriously or did not understand what they were being asked; (2) Respondents are grossly misinformed and apparently too busy or distracted to become informed; (3) Many Americans genuinely like the idea of living under an authoritarian administration; (4) Can anyone articulate these Trump policies that supposedly helped them? Can the respondents name one? The only Trump policy I've read or heard about going forward, in a possible second term, is his desire to unlawfully use the Justice Department to seek revenge against his perceived enemies and opponents. How is that supposed to help respondents? Answer: It can't, and it won't. I doubt Trump even knows how, or if, he could accomplish this.]
Let's return to Donald Watkins' post:
Voters think Donald Trump would be better able to handle the economy, inflation, crime, border security and the war between Israel and Hamas, while Joe Biden is better able to handle abortion and tone in politics.
Border security seems to be the biggest issue where Joe Biden falters, with Donald Trump leading against him by 30%.
[A lot of respondents apparently do not realize how good they have it under Joe Biden -- and they seem to lack appreciation for the unprecedented mess he inherited from Trump in 2021. Let's consider a few facts: Focusing on "kitchen table" economic issues that most affect average Americans, we find the following under Trump:
(1)The economy lost 2.9 million jobs;
(2) Unemployment increased by 1.6 percentage points;
(3) The international trade deficit Trump promised to reduce went up. The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services in 2020 was the highest since 2008 and increased 40.5% from 2016;.
(4) The number of people lacking health insurance rose by 3 million;
(5) The federal debt held by the public went up $14.4 trillion to $21.6 trillion;
(6) Home prices rose 27.5 percent;
(7) Illegal immigration INCREASED! (What happened to the wall Mexico was going to pay for? Answer: The estimated cost from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security was $21.6 billion, and evidence indicates it did not do one bit of good.)
(8) The murder rate rose to the highest number since 1997;
(9) For those concerned about border security, I would suggest you check No. 7 above. You also might consider that the wall is not Trump's only plan regarding Mexico. As The New York Times recently reported: While
in office, Mr. Trump mused about using the military to attack drug
cartels in Mexico, an idea that would violate international law unless
Mexico consented. That idea has since taken on broader Republican
backing, and Mr. Trump intends to make the idea a reality if he returns to the Oval Office.] Does anyone think war with Mexico is a good idea? Really?
As for Biden's performance, considering the mess Trump left him, let's take a look:
(1) As The Los Angeles Times recently reported, the economy under Biden is way better than many Americans realize. From The Times report:
The economist Justin Wolfers puts it this way: Suppose you had fallen asleep in August 2019 and didn’t wake up for four years. On awakening, if you were an economist, the first thing you’d want to know is what the latest data shows.
You’d be happily surprised: Unemployment, which was at a historic low when you fell asleep, has remained near that point — 3.8% in September. The economy has grown significantly, even adjusting for inflation, meaning the country has gotten richer. And perhaps most surprisingly, for the first time since before the Great Recession, income distribution has become a bit more equal as the biggest gains have gone to low-wage workers.
In all, you would find that the economy was doing better than most of your colleagues in 2019 had predicted.
“You would wonder what really good thing had happened while you were sleeping,” said Wolfers, a professor at the University of Michigan’s Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy.
In fact, of course, you would have slept through a vast social trauma brought on by a worldwide plague, accompanied by a short, but very steep, recession. That makes the good economic numbers all the more impressive. . . .
“The economy is good. Full stop,” says Wolfers. “That’s the story.”
In short, Biden inherited an unprecedented economic mess and has handled it effectively. Full stop.
Even gas prices, as Axios reported recently, are headed in the right direction under Biden:
U.S. oil production has touched new record highs in recent weeks.
U.S. benchmark oil prices are down nearly 20% in the fourth quarter, to below $75 a barrel.
The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline is $3.24, according to AAA. That's down 5% in the last month.
As the Associated Press recently reported, many economic indicators could hardly be better:
By many measures, the U.S. economy is rock solid. Friday’s employment report showed that employers added 199,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.7%. Inflation has plummeted in little over a year from a troubling 9.1% to 3.2% without causing a recession — a phenomenon that some once skeptical economists have dubbed “immaculate.”]
Let's return to Donald Watkins post on the WSJ poll:
Concerns about Joe Biden’s age and cognitive abilities have also been spotlighted on the campaign trail, stemming from reports of him falling, sometimes mixing up countries and dates, and making inexplicable other blunders.
Trump’s 91 felony counts in pending four criminal cases have not caused voters to sour on him. In the court of public opinion, Trump has been pardoned for any crimes he may have committed.
Biden’s apparent senility seems to be getting worse, and voters are not buying whatever he is selling.
The WSJ poll was conducted from Nov. 29 to Dec. 4 with a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.
]Watkins and I part ways on this issue. Yes, Biden is 81 years old, and I wish he was about 20 years younger. Yes, Biden has jumbled his words at times, including in recent speeches. (Trump has done the same thing.) I'm sure Biden's cognitive abilities are not what they once were, but as for his supposed falls, sleepiness, etc., there have been a number of false reports about those issues. (See here, here, and here.)
As for senility, I have not found any reports that have a mental-health expert stating definitively that Biden is senile. The Guardian did report this:
Biden’s physician released a five-page summary of his current health status in February, detailing some issues such as arthritis and a need to take blood thinners, but describing him as “healthy, vigorous, 80-year-old male, who is fit to successfully execute the duties of the Presidency”. But such internal assessments have not stopped Republican attacks, while incidents like Biden’s onstage fall last week at the Air Force Academy commencement have fueled rightwing news cycles that Democrats are hiding his infirmity and legacy media outlets are acting as apologist.
As for the polls findings that people don't seem to care about Trump's criminal indictments, I can only label that as nonsense. The four indictments against Trump are four more than all other presidents combined. If that doesn't say something to the American people, then we are too dim-witted to handle having a democracy. If we want a criminal as president, that's what we will get with Trump. Millions of Americans saw him incite a the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, which obstructed an official proceeding, live on TV, so is there really any doubt about that case?
Finally, on the matter of age, that cuts more than one way. If Donald Trump completes a full second term, he will be 81 years old -- the same age that Biden is now. Also, Trump will be five months short of 82 -- older than Biden is now. Shouldn't the public be concerned about Trump's age and any signs that senility is taking him over? Why are so many seemingly concerned only about Biden's age, even though Trump will be the same age as Biden for the final seven months of a possible second term. ]
Let's return to Donald Watkins' post:
On December 7, 2023, Axios published an insightful article on the new Cabinet members and White House staffers who will help Donald Trump administer his revenge. No agency of government will step up to reign-in Trump’s brutal and widespread campaign of retribution against his perceived enemies and critics.
The first head on Donald Trump’s presidential chopping block in January 2025 will be Special Counsel Jack Smith’s. The second head will be Attorney General Merrick Garland’s. Both men will likely get a Trump-ordered opportunity to experience federal criminal prosecution, conviction, and prison, first-hand.
Remember, you heard this bold new prediction here first!
[ For those considering a vote for Trump, I encourage you to check out the following words from people who worked closely with him:]
Ty Cobb, former White House counsel, who defended Trump in probe of Russian interference in 2016 election
“He has never cared about America, its citizens, its future or anything but himself. In fact, as history well shows from his divisive lies, as well as from his unrestrained contempt for the rule of law and his related crimes, his conduct and mere existence have hastened the demise of democracy and of the nation. Our adversaries
and our allies both recognize that even his potential re-election
diminishes America on the world stage and ensures continued acceleration
of the domestic decline we are currently enduring. If that re-election
actually happens, the consequences will extinguish what, if anything,
remains of the American Dream.”
Mark Milley, retired chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Trump
“We are unique among the world’s militaries,” We don’t take an oath to a country, we don’t take an oath to a tribe, we don’t take an oath to a religion. We don’t take an oath to a king, or a queen, or a tyrant or a dictator.”
“And we don’t take an oath to a wannabe dictator. We take an oath to the Constitution and we take an oath to the idea that is America – and we’re willing to die to protect it.”
[The U.S. Constitution might need protecting in the not-too-distant future. I suspect Ty Cobb and Mark Milley are the type of people we need to protect it. I have little doubt that Cobb and Milley are tougher and smarter than Trump, and I pray they can stop him in his tracks, if it proves to be necessary.]
