Wonderful Wednesday – Markets Celebrate Trump Landslide

Posted on the 06 November 2024 by Phil's Stock World @philstockworld
Landslide!

Apparently it's the Dems/Libs that are living in a bubble as MAGA takes back the Presidency along with the House and the Senate AND the popular vote - I guess pollsters were also in some kind of bubble too... In the end, this is a Democracy so we'll have to accept the will of the people and give Trump the wheel for another 4 years - this time with no checks, no balances - whatever he wants to do.

And what do you get when you win the Presidency? Well, in Trump's case, DJT is up 36% this morning and that's good for +$2Bn to Trump's net worth but now he can make DJT his primary means of communication as POTUS and possibly turn it into a real platform that doesn't just bleed cash.

Bitcoin blasted up to $75,000 overnight and I'm sure Trump's own coins will follow suit. Team Trump and many, many MAGA candidates in this cycle took in a lot of donations from the Crypto World and COIN is jumping 13% this morning as well and, FORTUNATELY, we stayed aggressive in our Long-Term Portfolio in our last review and our net $199,350 spread is now $420,000 in the money and right on track for our $600,000 target so - thank you President Trump!

All the indexes are up strongly this morning but the Russell 2000 is up 6% - that's crazy! Less regulation, less taxes, tariffs to protect US companies - what could possibly go wrong?

And no sector is happier about this than our beloved Banksters with our Mega Banks up almost 10% and the entire Financial Index (XLF) up 5.5% this morning - living in a Bankster's Paradise!

And no ONE is happier than Elon Musk, whose TSLA stock is up 13% this morning, back over $1Tn in Market Cap and netting Elon a cool $27Bn this morning (which won't be taxed, thanks to Trump). Actually, since Elon Musk jumped on the Trump train after TSLA's TERRIBLE Q1 Report in later April, TSLA has gone from $140 to $280 and that's up 100% ($500Bn) and 23% of that goes to Musk so call it a $115Bn gain for Musk from hitching his wagon to Trump - a lesson that will not be lost on the rest of Corporate America - who will be lining up to kiss the ring a Mar a Lago this Winter.

Overall, the key policies we can expect to kick in early next year are:
    • Tariffs of 10-20% on all imports and 60% on Chinese goods
    • Cryptocurrency deregulation
    • Tax policy changes with the TCJA provisions expiring in 2025
    • Changes to trade relationships, particularly with China
    • Potential impacts on international relationships and agreements
    • The end of the Ukraine war - one way or the other.
From a sector standpoint, we can expect:

Technology Sector (XLK)

Positive Factors Negative Factors
    • Tech companies with significant Chinese exposure could suffer from tariffs
    • Social media platforms may face increased scrutiny

Industrial/Manufacturing (XLI)

Positive Negative
    • 60% tariffs on Chinese goods could disrupt supply chains
    • Higher input costs due to broad 10-20% import tariffs

Financial Sector (XLF)

Positive Negative
    • Market volatility from policy uncertainty
    • International banking relationships could be affected by trade tensions

Energy Sector (XLE)

Positive Negative
    • Renewable energy might face headwinds
    • International energy markets could be disrupted by geopolitical tensions

Healthcare (IYH)

Mixed Impact

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

Remember that historical market performance under different Presidents often has more to do with timing and external factors than specific policies. The S&P 500 showed strong performance under both Trump (12% annual) and Biden (14% annual).

The market's reaction to Trump's victory has been overwhelmingly positive, reflecting optimism about less regulation, tax cuts, and a more aggressive stance on trade. However, the long-term implications of these policies could introduce volatility and sector-specific challenges: Investors should brace for both opportunities and risks: As we move forward, keeping an eye on how these policies unfold will be key. The market's initial euphoria might settle into more nuanced reactions as the real-world impacts of these policies become clearer. Remember, while the market has celebrated this morning, the long-term effects of Trump's policies will shape our investment strategies for the next four years.