What Next Wednesday? Fire (200 Missiles), Flood (Helene) and Pestilence (Global Warming)

Nike (NKE) withdrew guidance.

It's not the end of the World but it will spook the Retail Sector but, as we discussed in our Live Member Chat Room (Join Us!) this morning, it's not so much because they are seeing a disaster next year but that they have a new CEO taking over and it's going to be up to him to set guidance - not the current CEO and team. Still, traders hate uncertainty almost as much as they hate restructuring and pivoting - so the stock is going to suffer because the company is doing the right thing - changing with the times.

JD Vance changed with the times last night and came across as mostly rational and capable and VERY good at restating Donald Trump's rants to make them sound almost like a policy so he beat Tim Walz, who came across as a football coach running for Vice-President - a bit out of his depth but he held his ground admirably.

WAY too many references to Minnesota, which I have heard is in America (Fargo, Mary Tyler Moore, Rocky and Bullwinkle, Coach, Little House on the Prairie and one of the Golden Girls - and that's all I can think of...) but Tim is not running for Governor - he's running for Vice President of the whole country - he should have studied up on that!

Meanwhile, I love the vibe of these two guys giving 2-minute sound bytes on Global Events (and failing to directly answer most questions) while World War III is breaking out in the Middle East. Iran, having lost their Hezbollah proxies, lashed out at Israel - firing 200 missiles at Tel Aviv - out of over 3,000 in their arsenal - from 1,100 miles away - that's like New York attacking Florida (more likely the other way around).

Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Houthis in Yemen - these are all Iranian proxies who have taken control of these small countries who have, until now, waged war against Israel on Iran's behalf. The Hamas attack on Israel (last Oct 7) which killed 695 citizens (364 young people attending a music festival) and took hundreds more hostage, who have now been held for a year (but mostly dead by now)!

Israel's been rooting out Hamas for a year but Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on October 8th of last year, the day after the Hamas slaughter and they have fired over 8,000 missiles into Israel forcing 60-70,000 people to evacuate the area near Lebanon - so it's not like Israel's retaliation came as a surprise, right? The main trigger was a rocket attack on a soccer stadium in July that killed 12 children - and here we are!

So, the march towards WWIII starts with Iran widening the war by 1,100 miles as their 85 year-old " Supreme Leader", Ali Khamenei, who's been in power for 30 years, has nothing left to lose and wants to see Israel wiped off the map before he dies or - SOON! Israel has been dismantling two of his proxy forces and making Khamenei look silly and even weak so he " had " to retaliate but this over-the-top attack gives Israel a very good excuse to once again derail his nuclear program and, of course, the US has 40,000 troops in the region - so we can get sucked into this mess and then Russia or China may step in and, of course, all of this affects OPEC... bomb shelters, anyone?

As I noted yesterday, Khamenei makes $6M/day more at $72 than $67 and OPEC makes $150M/day more on a $5 bump in oil so no one out there is looking to de-escalate this conflict so the payback on 200 $1M missiles is a great investment so far. And we still have Iran's Houthis (Rent-A-Rebel) operating in the Strait of Hormuz, who can further escalate oil supply issues by renewing their attack.

Expect to hear updated reports on Iran's nuclear program any day now and, if they are further along that we thought, Israel - acting as our own (US) proxy - is very likely to strike directly at Iran - as they have done in the past. In his debate, Donald Trump said he can solve this whole thing in one day - now would be a good time...

Speaking of good times, 1.3M people are STILL without power from Florida to Virginia, gas stations have no fuel, schools are closed, communities are in shambles and Trump was in Georgia handing out boxes of chicken nuggets (I kid you not!). Hopefully Biden and Harris can do a bit better than that today, when they visit the area.

Hurricanes are a direct result of Global Warming and Trump pulling out of the Paris Climate Accords in 2017 put us on this path and it is the opinion of MOST global leaders that re-electing Donald Trump will be the end of the World - as we simply can't afford to ignore this problem for 4 more years.

The summer of 2024 saw numerous temperature records broken across the globe, including in Japan, China, and Australia. As of September, the global mean temperature for the past twelve months is the highest on record, at 1.52°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. 1.5°C was the line in the sand we had to avoid hitting by 2050 - oops!

Severe weather events, including flooding in Sudan and drought in parts of Italy, have been linked to climate change and the cost of NOT doing something about it is far exceeding the costs of doing something about it - which we still are not. Trump, in fact, has accepted (demanded, in fact) $1Bn from the Oil Industry to keep things as they are - a point and policy JD Vance defended voraciously in the debate last night.

He's very clever isn't he? The solution is MORE ENERGY PRODUCTION in the US, MORE polluting factories in the US - that's the $1Bn Oil donation talking... Walz is right, Biden/Harris have put up over $1.3Tn towards CLEAN energy solutions that compete with Big Oil - AND IT'S WORKING.

Remember how we DID try to create more solar manufacturing in the US? Remember how Trump and the GOP dismantled the program using Solyndra whose failure was used by Republicans to attack Obama's broader clean energy investment strategy, despite being an outlier in an otherwise successful program.

The GOP used Solyndra as a talking point to criticize government involvement in supporting renewable energy technologies, even though the loan program was overall profitable and helped accelerate multiple green industries in the US. This tactic worked so well that Republicans are still using Solyndra as a symbol to oppose any government support for clean energy initiatives.

We report, you decide...