I feel like I work at Pravda when I say "Markets are heading up this morning" – doesn't matter what's real, that's the news we're going to report. The crops are always new records, factory production is always up and the 5-year plan is always on track…
Nothing can be further from the truth than the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which opened down 2.5% flew back to positive and then decided to finish down 3% after all – manipulation failed for the day over there.
Problems in China are caused by their FAILURE to just lie back and accept the market manipulation going on on that side of the World. Goldman Sachs (GS) has been finally chased out of metals trading as a Senate subcommittee began examining their "alleged" manipulation of commodities and, over in China, the Securities Regulatory Commission is probing the same kind of index manipulation that is commonplace in our own markets.
Each contract represents 1,000 barrels scheduled for delivery to Cushing, OK, where the weekly inventory reports are tabulated and, by cancelling 99.4% of all the orders – the CRIMINALS at the NYMEX have deprived the United States of America of an economically vital resource in order to create an ENTIRELY ARTIFICIAL shortage of oil next month that their MEDIA LACKEYS will spin as an indication of demand increasing.
Lenin never had it so easy!
We also have other interesting Official Party Data to discuss as the 3rd revision of our Q3 GDP has come in at a whopping 5% – I'll bet you didn't realize how great things were this summer, did you? Turns out they were twice as good as last summer (2.7%) and 25% better than the original estimate (3.9%). Mostly the revision came from a huge upward revision to Corporate Profits, from 3.2% to 5.06%. Household spending also doubled, from 1.2% to 2.5%, adding 1.2% to GDP all by itself, as lower gas prices left more money in consumers' pockets – a trend that should continue into Q4.
Also worrying are some very weak numbers in Core Capital Goods, with orders flat at 0% vs 1% expected and shipments up just 0.2% vs 1.3% expected. Nonetheless, the markets are flying up to new highs in the Futures, which will make for some very exciting shorts as the strong Dollar should pressure the indexes lower (along with rumors of Fed TIGHTENING, as our economy begins to look like China), but we're not expecting a big drop until after New Years.
We're still waiting to see if 11,000 can be taken back on the NYSE as THAT would be a bullish sign and we already got Russell 1,200 back with the S&P and Nasdaq already out in space, more than 10% over their Must Hold Lines (Nasdaq almost 20%).
This morning, however – we're shorting the Futures here (9am) at 17,995 on /YM, 2,085 on /ES, 4,310 on /NQ and 1,207.50 on /TF.
As long as the S&P is over 2,080, that shouldn't be a problem and Dow 18,000 would confirm it nicely – it's a good way to cover if you are too bearish and we can still go long on oil (/CL) at $55.50 and, of course, there's our Secret Santa's Inflation Hedges – with 5% GDP, I think it's going to be a good year for them after all.
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