This post will focus on the percentage of offensive, and defensive events produced in each zone at even-strength. By evaluating the percentage of events occurring in each zone, and cross-checking that data with how a team performed in scoring-chances, we can establish two things.
- Whether or not the events are shifting relative to scoring-chances?
- How much the events are shifting?
These numbers are produced by individual forwards, and used to evaluate and compare each player's performance.
Comparing the numbers produced by Montreal Canadiens forwards during games where the Habs produced more scoring-chances than they allowed, with those games where they were out-chanced, provides us with micro-stat generated numbers not impacted by goaltending. If we were to only compared numbers from wins with those from losses, the data would be compromised by how well, or how poorly either goaltender performed.
What is Boucher Scouting?
EVENTS WITH PUCK-POSSESSION
Puck-possession events include any play that a player engages in while in possession of the puck. They include, but are not limited to; passes, dekes, shots, dump-outs, and dump-ins.
In games where the Canadiens have produced more even-strength scoring chances than the opposition, 54.1% of the Habs forwards' puck-possession events took place in the offensive-zone. When they allowed more ES scoring-chances than they produced, only 47.6% of their puck-possession events took place in the offensive-zone. In other words, when the Habs out-chanced the opposition there was a tangible and quantifiable increase in offensive-zone pressure.
When Montreal had more ES scoring-chances than the opposition only 22.2% of the forwards' puck-possession events took place in the defensive-zone. That percentage moved up to 28.1% when they were out-chanced.
Neutral-zone events remained comparable regardless of whether the Habs out-chanced the opposition, or not.
WHEN HABS OUT-CHANCED THE OPPOSITION AT EVEN-STRENGTH
WHEN HABS WERE OUT-CHANCED BY THE OPPOSITION AT EVEN-STRENGTH
DEFENSIVE-EVENTS
Defensive-events include any play that a player engages in while attempting to remove puck-possession from the opposition. They include, but are not limited to; stick-checks, body-checks, blocked passes, and blocked shots.
In games where the Canadiens have produced more even-strength scoring chances than the opposition, 38.7% of the Habs forwards' defensive events took place in the defensive-zone. When they allowed more ES scoring-chances than they produced that percentage of defensive-events ballooned up to 43.3%. Expressed simply, when the Habs gave up more scoring-chances, the forwards spent tangibly more time defending.
The percentage of defensive (forechecking) events that took place in the offensive-zone remained exactly the same regardless of scoring-chance numbers. In fact, defensive-events shifted from the defensive-zone to the neutral-zone when the Habs out-chanced the opposition at even-strength; reflecting improved gap-control, a solid trap, and aggressive back-pressure.
WHEN HABS OUT-CHANCED THE OPPOSITION AT EVEN-STRENGTH
WHEN HABS WERE OUT-CHANCED BY THE OPPOSITION AT EVEN-STRENGTH
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