(FiveThirtyEight)
Kamala Harris' net favorability rating is moving up in the political world, indicating poll respondents have a much more positive view of her image than was once the case, according to a report at Axios. Under the headline "Kamala Harris' polling renaissance," Zachary Basu writes:
Vice President Kamala Harris' net favorability rating crossed into positive territory yesterday for the first time since July 2021, according to FiveThirtyEight's polling average.
Why it matters: Harris has experienced an image makeover of epic proportions — the kind usually reserved for retired politicians, not a sitting vice president nearly four years into her term.
The link above includes a graph from FiveThirtyEight, tracking Harris' favorability rating and its move into positive territory. (The graph also can be viewed at the top of this post.) Basu provides background on the graph:
- As recently as July 14, one week before President Biden dropped out of the race, Harris' net approval sat at -17 — among the worst VP ratings in modern polling history.
- Today, with under 50 days until the election, Harris' success in erasing that deficit suggests she's winning the high-stakes, high-dollar war to define her candidacy.
Reality check: Those gains don't mean Harris will win the Electoral College, which will be decided by seven nail-biter contests in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Recent data, however shows that Harris' dominant debate performance strengthened her position against Donald Trump. Basu writes:
The big picture: The election remains exceedingly close, even with early indications that Harris is receiving a polling bump from her strong debate performance against former President Trump last week.
- FiveThirtyEight's election model currently has Harris favored to win the election 61 times out of 100, while Trump is favored to win 39 times out of 100.
- The Economist's polling average found Harris has opened up her largest lead yet in the national popular vote — 4.4 points over Trump — while its model gives her a 3 in 5 chance of winning the election.
- Nate Silver, whose model has consistently favored Trump for the past several weeks, wrote today that Harris is "moving up in the polls enough that the model is converging back toward 50/50 in the Electoral College."
- Recent polling data produces some odd outcomes, especially in states where you would not expect to see such oddities. Basu provides background:
Between the lines: While pundits and forecasters remain on the lookout for high-quality battleground polls, one of the most intriguing surveys of the past several days came from a red state.
- A Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll by renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer found Trump edging Harris 47% to 43% among likely Iowa voters, shrinking an 18-point lead Trump had over Biden in June.
- In a provocative Substack post on Sunday, Silver also flagged a rare poll from Alaska showing Harris trailing Trump by just five points.
The bottom line: For all the positivity around Harris' recent polls, she's still polling worse against Trump than both Biden and Hillary Clinton were at this point in 2020 and 2016, respectively.