HABS: Quantifying the Makings of a Successful Powerplay

By Kicks @Chrisboucher73
Data-generated scouting can help quantify the makings of a successful powerplay. This post will focus on the relationship between powerplay data acquired through data-generated scouting, and powerplay success. Specifically; loose-puck recoveries, puck-control, and shots-on-net.
The graph below shows the number of powerplay goals the Canadiens have scored (per-player, per-minute of powerplay ice-time) in each of their games this season. A win is represented by a green bar, while a loss is indicated in red.
When the Habs have scored at least one powerplay goal in a game, they have a record of 9 wins and 5 losses.

Unlike the above graph, a green bar in the below graph represents a game where the Canadiens scored at least one powerplay goal, whereas the red represents a game where Montreal failed to score on the powerplay.
This graph tells us that in each of the 9 games where Montreal was able to get more than 0.200 powerplay shots per-player through to the net per-minute played, they were able to score at least one powerplay goal.
In other words, in games where the Habs averaged at least 1 shot per-minute of PP ice-time, they have scored at least 1 powerplay goal.

Success on the powerplay requires teams to have possession of the puck in the offensive-zone. One of the ways to accomplish this is to recover as many loose-pucks as possible; particularly when a team is attempting to gain access to the offensive-zone by way of a dump-in.
As with the previous graph, a green bar represents a game where the Canadiens scored at least one powerplay goal, whereas the red represents a game where Montreal did not score on the powerplay.
Montreal was able to score on the powerplay during 11 of the 12 games where they recovered at least 0.600 offensive-zone loose-pucks per-player per-minute of ice-time.
Expressed simply, in 11 of the 12 games where the Habs recovered at least 3 offensive-zone loose-pucks per-minute of powerplay ice-time, they score at least one powerplay goal.

Another way to maintain possession in the offensive-zone while on the powerplay is to recover loose-pucks produced via rebounds. This graph expresses the number of successful offensive-zone loose pucks via rebounds the Habs have recovered per-minute of powerplay ice-time. This also quantifies forwards' willingness to go to the net.
The green bar represents a game where the Canadiens scored at least one powerplay goal, whereas the red represents a game where Montreal did not score on the powerplay.
Montreal was able to score on the powerplay during 8 of the 10 games that saw them recover at least 0.060 offensive-rebounds per-player per-minute played.
In other words, in 8 of the 10 games where the Habs were able to recover at least 0.30 offensive-rebounds per-minute of PP ice-time, they were able to score at least one PP goal. This is a reflection of the way Montreal has had success on the powerplay. Many goals have been scored by way of point shots, rather than as the result of rebounds.

As mentioned earlier, possession in the offensive-zone is an obvious requirement for a successful powerplay. This graph expresses the number of successful offensive-zone o-touches Montreal was able to produce per-minute of powerplay ice-time in each of their games this season. A successful offensive-touch is produced with each successful pass, deke, or shot-on-net.
Montreal was able to score a powerplay goal during 9 of the 12 games that saw them produce at least 1.5 successful offensive-touches per-player in the offensive-zone per-minute.
Expressed simply, the Habs produced at least 1 powerplay goal in 9 of the 12 games that saw them produce at least 7.5 successful offensive-touches in the offensive-zone per-minute of powerplay ice-time. In other words, the Habs over/under in terms of dekes, shots, and passes in the offensive-zone per-powerplay goal is 7.5.

Obviously powerplay opportunities are an absolute requirement to powerplay goals. Montreal has scored a powerplay goal in 11 of the 17 games they've played where they have been on the poweplay for at least 4 minutes. Interestingly, they've only scored a powerplay goal in 6 of the 10 games where they've been on the powerplay for more than 6 minutes.

In order to get powerplays, a team must have players who can draw penalties. This graph represents the amount of obstruction penalties each Montreal player has drawn per-minute of ice-time.
Lars Eller has drawn substantially more obstruction penalties per-minute played than any other Montreal player. Other players who have drawn more obstruction penalties than the average Montreal player include, Alex Galchenyuk, Travis Moen, Daniel Briere, Max Pacioretty, and Louis Leblanc (SSS).
Among defensemen, PK Subban has drawn substantially more obstruction penalties than any other Montreal d-man.

This graph represents the number of scoring-chances each Montreal Canadiens player has produced per-minute of even-strength ice-time. The players indicated by a green bar are the players who have drawn the most obstruction penalties per-minute (indicated in the above graph). As we can see, those players are also among the leaders in scoring-chances per-minute, are also among the leaders in obstruction penalties drawn. With the lone exemption being Brendan Gallagher.

There is an obvious relationship between powerplay success, loose-puck recoveries, puck-control, and shots-on-net. Data-generated scouting can help quantify the makings of a successful powerplay by tracking those events, and comparing them to the number of powerplay goals scored.