(Note: This was written two weeks ago, prior to the Bucs losing Byrd to the Phillies today)
He is putting on a show in the Dominican League after already having a pretty successful year. That following a tremendous year last year. My only area of disagreement/discussion with Polanco is his timeline.
I see many insinuations and direct discussion from many about Polanco being ready by mid-season 2014 or during the 2014 season. I just do not see that and certainly hope the Pirates do not push for that when they could get a year of Marlon Byrd in RF (signed on a 2-year contract) and then trade Byrd the following year when Polanco is ready, if he lives up to this year's numbers he could still fetch a return when Polanco is ready. I know some believe that Polanco can/will be better than McCutchen, but for comparison's sake I want to analyze the minor league careers of McCutchen and Marte.
I will start off with McCutchen because I think this comparison works best considering the tools that the two players had/have as prospects. Andrew McCutchen came into the organization as a first-round pick with a lot of promise and athletic ability. At 18 years of age McCutchen was in the GCL and NYP and was hitting for a .850 OPS (.852 OPS actually) albeit in only about 200 at bats. At the age of 19, 'Cutch was in the SAL league and hit well enough over 114 games and approximately 450 at bats to earn a short end-of-the-season call up to Altoona. In Altoona he ended the year very strong, hitting better there in the very short time he was there than he did in Hickory, putting up a .854 OPS in his 78 AA at bats. At the age of 20 McCutchen had a similar year as the year before, spending 118 games at AA and then getting promoted to AAA for 67 at bats at the end of that season. The season that McCutchen was 20 years old was not a great season for him. It was his lowest season in OPS during his minor league career, ending with a .717 OPS. He had a little more success at AAA in the small sample size than he had at AA that year, hitting .765 OPS in those 67 at bats. He hit for a .770 OPS the following season, a full-season in AAA, at the age of 21. This time, however, he did not get a promotion, and frankly he had not earned it the last two years. Playing in the upper level of the minor leagues is tough, and McCutchen was experiencing that. So at the age of 22, McCutchen headed back to AAA to start the 2009 season, staying there for 49 games, around 200 at bats, before being called up to the big leagues for the finall 108 games of the season. That stint in AAA? He hit for a .853 OPS. So total, McCutchen had 1304 at bats in the upper minors (AA-AAA) before becoming a full-time MLB player, all before he had turned 23.
Marte's case is even easier to look at really, and so I will be more brief. Marte got his first upper minor league at bat at the age of 22 in 2011 when he stayed the full season at AA getting 536 at bats and hitting for a very nice .870 OPS. The following year at age 23 Marte received 388 at bats in AAA before being called up to the major leagues for his final 167 at bats that year. Marte hit really well in AAA, putting up a .847 OPS in those 388 at bats, but then struggled (which is only natural) in his first trip to the majors as he hit for only a .257 average and a .737 OPS. Overall, then, Marte received 924 at bats in the upper minors before he was called up to the majors where he struggled prior to finding his success this year.
Enter, Gregory Polanco, who I admit is likely to be every bit as good as Marte and possibly McCutchen and has super star written all over him. At the age of 20 Gregory Polanco was blowing up the SAL as he hit for a ridiculous .910 OPS and having almost as many extra base-hits as he did strikeouts. Impressive. McCutchen was a year younger, although more experienced coming into the organization that Polanco, when he put up impressive, albeit not as impressive as Polanco, numbers in the SAL. Polanco is justifiably promoted to the FSL, a cautious approach with Polanco that seemed to work as he hit for a .836 OPS in his 218 FSL at bats. Polanco is then promoted to AA Altoona where he puts up a, pedestrian for him, .762 OPS in his 243 AA at bats. At the end of the season, as a simple introduction to the level, the Pirates promoted Polanco to AAA where he played in 2 games and only having 9 at bats. In AAA? Well, it was only 9 at bats so what can you really want? Polanco puts up a .444 OPS. At the age of 21, Polanco has a total of 252 upper-level (AA-AAA) at bats or, if you cant the FSL as an upper-league now, 470 total A+-AAA at bats. Depending on how you evaluate the levels Polanco, for simplicity sake I will include the A+ at bats as upper-level MiLB at bats, had 470 upper-minor league at bats and posted a .791 OPS. At the age of 21 McCutchen was putting up that kind of OPS in a full-season of AAA.
I make these comparisons simply to say this: Gregory Polanco, as good as he is and as good as he will, hopefully, be is not ready nor should he be rushed to be ready for the major leagues. As he currently sits he has half as many at bats as Marte had in the upper-minors or one-third of the at bats that McCutchen had in the upper-minors. Likewise, his success thus far in the AA-AAA level does not demonstrate a readiness for major league promotion. Marte was hitting for an .870 OPS in AA and .847 OPS in AAA before being a mid-season call-up for the Pirates. In his 924 upper-minor league at bats he was, essentially, hitting for a full .08-.1 OPS better than Polanco has in his limited at bats. Truth be told, however, it is McCutchen, not Marte, whom Polanco should be compared to. It is McCutchen's minor league profile that Polanco so fittingly compares to. Polanco could and would do well by having a full season at AAA and like McCutchen depending on how he does at AAA he can either compete for the starting RF job in 2015 or come up after 30-50 AAA games in 2015. At this point looking at Polanco to be a help in 2014 is simply missing the developmental steps that he needs to take. McCutchen is a better player for having to have the number of at bats he did in the upper-level minor leagues. He is a better player for having the full season at AAA and for having the 49 games in AAA in 2009. And Polanco will be a better player if he has a full season in AAA in 2014 as well.
Right now we are looking at a player who at the advanced levels of the minor leagues is only a .791 OPS player and anticipating the fall-off to the major leagues that is barely better than what Jose Tabata did this season in limited time and significantly worse than the numbers Marlon Byrd put up. Now, I am not trying to say that Polanco will be Tabata or will be significantly worse over his career than Byrd. I am simply speaking about the upcoming year, 2014. At this point in Gregory Polanco's development there is no reason to put any 2014 pressure on him to produce for the ML club. Furthermore, it seems to be in his best interest to give him all of 2014 in AAA even if he does put up good numbers at the beginning of the year so that he had the appropriate time to develop. The Pirates are best off, if his 2013 numbers hold true for his production in 2014, to keep Marlon Byrd on a 2 year deal with Jose Tabata as the 4th outfielder, in case of injury and spelling the starters, and dealing Marlon Byrd when Polanco has had the opportunity to fully develop and come up full-time in 2015.