Today is essentially a Fed marathon, with speakers lined up from now (9am) until 6pm, each with their unique perspective on the current economic landscape. As usual, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is expected to speak at 9:20 am, EST. Powell's remarks will be critical, as the market tries to decipher the Fed's future path on interest rates.
08:30 AM Durable Goods Orders
08:30 AM GDP Q2
08:30 AM Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Corporate Profits
09:10 AM Fed's Collins Speech
09:15 AM Fed's Bowman Speech
09:20 AM Jerome Powell Speech
09:25 AM Fed's Williams Speech
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Index
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM Fed's Barr Speech
10:30 AM Fed's Cook Speech
11:00 AM Kansas City Fed Mfg Index
01:00 PM Fed's Kashkari Speech
01:00 PM Results of $44B, 7-Year Note Auction
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
06:00 PM Fed's Cook Speech
Also in the mix are Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr and Fed Governor Lisa Cook, both speaking around 10:30, along with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari at 1:00 pm. This steady stream of Fed commentary could shape the market's view on whether inflation is truly tamed or if another rate hike might still be on the table.
With so many Fed heads speaking, the market will be looking for clues on two fronts:
- The Fed's Rate Path: While the consensus has been leaning toward rate cuts by year-end, there remains a degree of uncertainty. Recent economic data, like this morning's better-than-expected (0% but 0.5% ex-transport) Durable Goods Orders and steady GDP numbers (3%) suggest that the economy is still resilient, which could challenge the narrative of an imminent rate reduction.
- Inflation vs. Recession: Powell will likely address whether the Central Bank feels it has successfully curbed inflation, or if more action is required. If Powell signals caution, the markets could react negatively, particularly as investors fear the balance between taming Inflation and avoiding a Recession.
On the flip side, the Energy Sector has been under pressure as Crude Oil prices slip to $67.25 per barrel this morning DESPITE geopolitical tensions and that BS from OPEC that we discussed in yesterday's Webinar. This sector is facing a tricky balancing act with oversupply concerns weighing heavily, while Hurricane Helene threatens energy infrastructure on the U.S. coast and in the Gulf - something else we'll be watching closely in our Live Member Chat Room.
Globally, the markets are coming on strong with Asian markets up overnight. The Nikkei was up 2.8% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rising 4.2% as the additional stimulus gains a lot of fans, driven by tech optimism and hopes for even more Chinese stimulus. European markets are also in positive territory, supported by strong economic data and dovish comments from their own Central Bank.
We still have Pending Home Sales at 10:00, which could give us additional insight into the strength of the housing market.
Today will be all about the Fed and the market's interpretation of its commentary. Expect volatility as each speech could shift sentiment, especially if Powell hints at a more cautious approach to rate cuts or discusses the Fed's outlook on inflation. The Tech Sector should continue to outperform, but Energy and Cyclicals may remain under pressure from the rising Dollar (also predicted in the Webinar - now 100.9 - you're welcome!) as we head into the final stretch of the 3rd Quarter.