"It's like you're always stuck in second gear
When it hasn't been your day, your week, your month
Or even your year" – Friends
Actually it was last July when the S&P 500 first tested the 4,500 line.
I was, at the time, a little skeptical, writing Morning Reports with titles like this:
July 1st - Throwback Thursday – Delta Variant Sends Many Countries back to Lockdowns
I know we don't want to start July off worrying about Covid when we should be going out and having fun but we need to remember not everyone is having such a good time and that kind of makes me wonder how all these projection of S&P 500 earnings, which rely 50% on the Global Economy, are going to be hitting their marks when the rest of the World is still facing serious issues?
July 6th - 2,300 Tuesday – Is the Russell out of Gas?
With 2020 earnings being negative, the CAPE (earnings over 10 years) of the Russell 2000 is still well below the 2018 high of 130, hovering around 120 but we're paying 43% more than we did then, when the P/E ratio for the Russell was 83.05. The means the current P/E for the Russell is around 100 times earnings and we KNOW, for a FACT, that the Government and the Fed have spent over $10Tn (50% of our GDP) in the past 18 months – just to give us that 43%. We don't know, for a fact, that they will ever stop spending and average of $600Bn/month to prop up the economy and, if so, then maybe paying 100x earnings isn't so crazy but, if they do ever stop….
July 14th - Which Way Wednesday – Biden Proposes $3.5Tn in New Stimulus
Is that going to be enough? It's been 3 months since our last $2.1Tn stimulus so isn't it time for
…
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