That's the first thing these guys have agreed on in years. Don't get too excited – it's only the Budget they should have passed last June but anything passing in Congress is simply amazing these days. The basic bill provides $730 Billion in NonDefense funding, a $46 Billion increase over fiscal 2021, and $782 Billion in Defense funding, an increase of $42 Billion. What it does not have is funding for Covid, which had to be stripped out to make the GOP happy. That will now be a completely separate fight for vaccines, medicine and testing – despite the fact that 1,293 people died of Covid yesterday with 35,795 new infections.
As you can see from the map, the war is still raging on but the markets don't actually care about that and the indexes are up another 1.5% in pre-market action but still no 4,320 on the S&P 500 (see yesterday's PSW Report) and this week is a technical failure if we can't get back over that line and hold it.
The Volatility Index (VIX) is still at 29 so don't get complacent but Gold (/GC) has dropped back to $1,968 and Silver (/SI) is at $25.87 – both off their highs and Oil (/CL) is "only" $107 this morning and Gasoline (/RB) is down to $3.26/gal wholesale – what a bargain! Wheat is well off the highs at $1,063 – up from the usual $750 but Corn is persistently elevated at $750 – usually $600.
Futures Trading is something every trader should know how to do but it should also be something you very rarely do. We try to only play very obvious tops or bottoms and $4.50 has been a great bottom for /NG but we've been unwilling to make a top call on Oil or Gasoline – even though these levels are clearly unsustainable. Keynes was right when he said "The market can remain irrational longer than you or I can remain solvent" – the Futures remind you of that on a regular basis if you don't maintain a strict trading discipline and learn to make non-greedy exits.
We are entering the weekend very well-hedged and we haven't traded much this week as we wait on the Fed next week. Putin is making some noises about peace this morning but he also said he was wirthdrawing troops the day before he attacked so why should we believe a word this man says?
Next week we will do our portfolio reviews and, if the S&P can get back over 4,320 and hold it – we may even make some bullish adjustments as we're close enough to the 20% sell-off we predicted since last year to be happy to start buying a few, select, long-term positions.
Have a great weekend,
- Phil
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