Already the monsters are coming out with two of NY's three papers already maxing out their headline fonts to scream EBOLA!!! to people on their way to work. As I noted to our Member in this morning's Alert (tweeted out too!) that made for easy shorts on the Futures:
Based on Ebola and the upcoming stress tests, I'd have to guess a sell-off is coming today. Shorting /ES at 1,940 (tight stops, of course) and the Dow (/YM) at 16,600 are a lot safer than shorting /TF at 1,100 but all good lines to use and watch. /NQ already failed 4,000.
We're back to short in our Short-Term Porfolio but less aggressively so than last weekend as we can't ignore the underlying 3.5% gains our indexes have put up this week.
As usual, the Dollar is being knocked down to support the Futures but it's not helping oil much ($81.24) so far. Gold, however, bounced back to $1,233 and silver (/SI) went over our long line at $17.25 (very tight stops below). Gasoline (/RB) was rejected at $2.20 – another sign that the underlying economy is much weaker than these indexes would have you believe.
“The market currently looks like a game of chicken where no player has blinked,” HSBC said. “The major producers are likely to compete heavily on production and costs, with little regard for market outcomes.”
New-home prices in China fell in 69 of the 70 cities monitored by the government last month, according to data today, adding to signs of a slowdown. The world’s second-largest economy grew 7.3 percent in the July-September period, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2009.
If you want something to be afraid of, worry about China, worry about Europe – not Ebola!
Have a great weekend,
- Phil
Tags: CHINA, Ebola, futures, iron ore, S&P 500, SPY
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