Last Friday we told you there would be a 2% bounce – back to 3,780 on the S&P 500 and we closed yesterday at 3,790 so mission accomplished and now we're testing our also-foretold 3,840 Line and, as I noted yesterday, that's going to be our stop on the way to 4,000 next week.
Once again, this is not a recovery though, 4,000 is the middle of our expected range on the S&P 500 and we HOPE (not a valid investing strategy) that we stay in the top of that range, up towards the Strong Bounce line at 4,320 – because only that is going to prevent the 50-day moving average (now 4,087) from falling below 4,000 about a month from now. Once that happens, you will WISH (also not a valid strategy) that we can get back to 4,000.
We have a nice tailwind next week from that rising MACD line so let's not waste it. It's going to be a low-volume, pre-holiday week and, if all goes as expected, we'll probably be adding more hedges next Friday but I think our portfolio balance is good going into the weekend with both the Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolio already ahead of our June 15th review.
Knowing what the market is going to do next let us buy with confidence in the past two weeks and it's been very, very busy for our Members as we added GOOGL, LOVE, IBM, CIM, LEVI, F, TROX and BBY to our Top Trade Alerts this month alone. In our Live Member Chat Room, we added many more longs to our portfolios – taking advantage of the opportunities that presented themselves – and that's why we're going to want more hedges next week – we have a lot more to protect!
Also, just like we expected the 3,680 line to hold on the S&P, we expect the 4,000 line to be rejected – at least on the first attempt and that's why we keep our hedges in the Short-Term Portfolio – where we can take advantage of these short-term moves. It's also nice that our 5% Rule™ lets us see what's coming so far in…
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