By The Numbers : Mano: Straightening out Some Thoughts

In case you didn't know, I live in Kansas City, the heart of the Arrowhead Kingdom. To say I've gotten some smack talk this week would be an understatement. I've heard everything from "you're not going to stop Hill, Kelce, and Maclin" to "we will win because of Andy Reid's bye week record." So I decided to put together some stats to make sure I'm not the only one that realizes who should win this game.
Let's see how the Steelers' offensive and defensive units stack up against Kansas City:
Steelers 16th pass defense vs Chiefs 19th pass offense ADVANTAGE: Steelers
Steelers 13th run defense vs Chiefs 15th run offense ADVANTAGE: Steelers
Steelers T-5 pass offense vs Chiefs 18th pass defense ADVANTAGE: Steelers
Steelers 14th run offense vs Chiefs 26th run defense ADVANTAGE: Steelers
Steelers 7th total offense vs Chiefs 24th total defense ADVANTAGE: Steelers
Steelers 12th total defense vs Chiefs 20th total offense ADVANTAGE: Steelers
All of a sudden, their offense doesn't seem that dangerous. They have a very weak run game and around 80% of their passes are short to medium routes which fits right into our gameplan on defense. It's also pretty cool to see that our worst unit (defense) is better than their best unit (offense). Now, I've heard about Andy Reid's record off a bye week about 1000 times this week. The only real stat to look at here is that he is undefeated (3-0) after having a first-round bye in the playoffs. Now let's go a little bit deeper into this:
Those three wins came against a 9-6-1 Falcons team, a 10-6 Packers team, and the 8-8 Vikings. Only one of those teams won their division. Speaking of divisions, it's worth noting that Andy Reid is 6-11 vs Division champs in postseason and is only 2-5 against teams in the playoffs that they lost to in the regular season. Meanwhile, Tomlin is 3-2 vs teams he beat in the regular season. It's safe to say Tomlin is better at adjusting and preparing for that second matchup.
What's funny is that apparently "week 4 doesn't matter because it was such a long time ago" but Andy Reid's byes from 12 years ago or the Chiefs last home playoff game came against the Steelers 20 some years ago is relevant. Oh well. Just wanted to try to put some thoughts to writing. Can't wait for Sunday!