Battling Bucs : Pitching Prospects

My last post was a list of the position players I have graded as a C or higher. My grades are always in flux and I am constantly reevaluating but that provided a good snapshot of that moment in time. Today I want to present my top 30 pitching prospects. I don't have an exact order for them yet so don't get on me too much about that but I have them sorted into groups based on level and my overall impression of them.
Low Level Average Prospects: Richard Mitchell, Luis Escobar, Neil Kozikowski, Jonathan Sandfort, Billy Roth, Tyler Eppler, Alex McRae
Richard Mitchell and Luis Escobar are regarded as the Pirates two best pitching prospects in the DSL. This is Mitchell's third season with the Pirates. He got his feet wet as a 16 year old in 2012, then moved on to a regular relief role last year where he did a decent job. This year the Pirates have moved him to the rotation and aside from not missing many bats it is going well. Mitchell projects to add some velocity but right now his fastball sits around 90 and he compliments it with a promising change up and curve. Escobar is a newcomer having just signed last season for a 150K bonus which is a large amount for the Pirates to give an international pitcher. Escobar was a 3B up to a few years ago but converted to pitching when he went unsigned. He shows promise on the mound getting his fastball up into the mid 90s but needs work on his breaking stuff. The conversion means Escobar is on the old side for a first time DSL player (18 years old) but his arm has potential and he has been solid so far this season.
Kozikowski, Sandfort and Roth are the best prep arms the Pirates selected and signed (aside from the traded Blake Taylor) in the 2012 and 2013 drafts. Sandfort was taken in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft and after a shaky debut in 2012 he rebounded with a very nice 2013 season. He missed a lot of bats which is odd for a Pirates pitching prospect at that level and while he struggled with his control he kept it pretty much under control. This year Sandfort moved up to Bristol and has shown improved control but his strikeouts are down and he has been getting hit hard. Roth is a similar story to Sandfort just a year removed. Roth was taken in the 16th round last year but ranked much better than that. He has a similar arsenal to Sandfort throwing his fastball in the low 90s with a solid curve and a work in progress change to compliment it. He too moved up to Bristol this year and like Sandfort is getting hit hard (albeit not quite as badly). Roth is showing good strike out stuff this year but has no control what so ever. Kozikowski was a selection out of nowhere by the Pirates last season. Not mentioned by basically any major outlet the Pirates selected Kozikowski in the 8th round last year and gave him 425K to sign. His debut went exceptionally well last year but the Pirates had him repeat rookie ball this year. Things haven't gone so well as he has been hit hard. Kozikowski has a similar arsenal to the rest though his fastball is a bit slower and he also throws a cutter.
Eppler and McRae are the best of the college pitchers the Pirates selected and signed in this past draft. Eppler was rated the highest of the two was selected in the 6th round and signed for just under slot. He has a four pitch mix of a fastball, slider, curve and change but none of them are considered a plus pitch. He doesn't miss many bats but has good control. McRae was drafted in the 10th round of this past draft and he too signed for just a bit underslot. He appears to be a similar pitcher to Eppler except he doesn't throw a curve ball and his slider is said to have the potential to be a plus pitch. Both are having similar seasons so far and to me it looks like the Pirates believe these two can turn into the good control, lots of ground balls pitchers they seem to really like.
Mid Level Average Prospects: Dovydas Neverauskas, John Kuchno, Shane Carle, Chad Kuhl
Neverauskas is a tough pitcher to get a read on. He has been with the Pirates since signing way back in 2009 but due to him being an international player he is still just 21 years old which is a perfectly fine age for an A ball player. He isn't your typical international pitching prospect though as he hails from Lithuania which makes figuring out a typical path for him impossible. His stuff is your typical stuff for pitching prospects like him: low 90s fastball with the ability to get into the mid 90s and breaking stuff that needs some refinement. His first four years were uneven but he flashed solid potential hitting the mid 90s consistently for a time, missing bats at a good rate at another time and showing decent command last season. This year the jump to A ball has been tough for him so he is likely running short on time to put his skills together.
Kuchno along with Moroff and Hurst are who the Pirates splurged on in 2012 once Appel turned them down. Hurst has recently failed as a pitcher and moved to hitting, Moroff has shown flashes of potential but then nothing but Kuchno has been the most consistent of the three. In 2012 he just got a taste of pro ball throwing 5 innings. Last year in his first extended action he pitched in A ball and though he struggled at first he improved as the year went on and posted a better OPS against each following month. The Pirates saw enough to move him up to A+ this year and he has been quietly having himself a solid season. He isn't missing many bats or posting eye popping numbers but he is pitching well. Long term Kuchno seems to fit better in relief as he can get his fastball up into the mid 90s (when starting it stays around 90) and has a nice curve to compliment it but no real third pitch.
Kuhl and Carle are for all intents and purposes the Eppler and McRae of last year's draft. They are college pitchers with good control, who don't miss many bats and get a lot of ground balls. Kuhl has a low 90s sinker, a mid 90s fastball and a curve and a change that he needs to develop. He impressed the Pirates enough last year that they skipped him over A ball to begin this season. So far he has done well at the level showing good control and missing a few more bats. Carle is a similar story to Kuhl as he has a very similar arsenal. Carle's debut was actually better than Kuhl's last year but he suffered an injury that caused him to miss the later part of the season so the Pirates sent him to A ball to begin the year. He pitched decently there and has since been moved up to A+ where he has gotten off to a bit of a rocky start. These two pitchers are very unlikely ever to become star prospects but they appear to be in the same mold as Brandon Cumpton and Casey Sadler so they do have a chance at developing into solid MLB players.
Upper Level Average Prospects: Zack Dodson, Orlando Castro, Andy Oliver, Tyler Waldron, Tyler Holdzkom
Once you get to upper level average prospects you are pretty much looking at potential relief arms but 2 of these 5 players remain starters right now. Dodson and Castro both are currently starting for the Pirates AA affiliate. Dodson represents the Pirates last hope to get anything out of the 2009 prep pitcher bonanza. What has kept him afloat for so long is that he is left handed. Dodson has plus stuff for a left handed pitcher including a low 90s fastball that can reach the mid 90s and a curve with plus potential. His high point came in 2011 when he had a good showing in A ball but due to a hand injury he didn't get much playing time so the Pirates had him repeat the level. This is where he started to fall apart as his control suffered and he was hit with a 50 game suspension. He rebounded decently last year and found himself beginning this season in AA. Things really haven't went well this season and Dodson is quickly running out of time but as a left hander he is likely to get one last shot as a bullpen arm next year. Castro is basically the complete opposite of Dodson except both are left handed. Castro comes without the pedigree, without the plus stuff and is undersized whereas Dodson is tall and projectable. Castro gets by with excellent command, good breaking stuff and being able to mix things up. Pitchers like him frequently make it through A ball but far apart in AA. Castro finds himself in AA and through two starts he has been no exception to that rule as he has been hit hard. Still it is only two starts so he still has a chance to rebound.
I'll be honest with you I really don't like Tyler Waldron as a prospect but the Pirates by the way they have handled him obviously do. From what I have read the Pirates appear to be trying to turn him into one of those heavy ground ball pitchers they like. Waldron really hasn't had much success at any level but the Pirates have had him pitching primarily in AAA this year and he is having his best season to date so apparently the adjustments are working.
Oliver and Holdzkom are two interesting projects the Pirates have taken on. Oliver has incredible stuff for a left handed pitcher and has proven difficult to hit in the minor leagues. His issue has always been commanding his great stuff. The Pirates traded for him last season and ended up having to remove him from the roster this spring due to him being out of options. He moved to relief full time this season and is having a great year with improved (but still pretty bad) control. Since going to mainly a one inning role Oliver has shown acceptable command and that is where the issue comes in. His stuff is great and he has the makings of a potential back end reliever but he is eligible for minor league free agency at the end of the year so if not added back to the 40 man the Pirates will quite possibly lose him. Holdzkom is a similar story but from the right hand side. He is a mountain of a man coming in somewhere between 6' 7" 225 lbs and 6' 10" 285 lbs (his height and weight is inconsistently listed) and can touch 100 mph with his fastball. Before being signed by the Pirates Holdzkom spent 2013 and part of 2014 in independent ball. He seems to have improved his control some and presents the Pirates with another interesting dilemma as he will be Rule V eligible this offseason.
The Next Step Up Group: Joely Rodriguez, Casey Sadler, Cody Dickson, Buddy Borden, Clay Holmes, Jason Creasy, Luis Heredia, Gage Hinsz
After a strong season last year between A and A+ Rodriguez was added to the 40 man roster this offseason and looking like potential the Pirates best left handed pitching prospect. Things haven't exactly turned out that way as the bottom has dropped out of strike out stuff and opponents are hitting him hard in AA. The good fastball is still there and his other pitches continue to develop but his prospect stock has certainly taken a hit this year. Long term Rodriguez looks like a reliever and that is where the Pirates have him pitching now in AA. Rodriguez comes with some upside and could even potentially return to the rotation but there is also a very real possibility he advances not much farther than where he is now. Sadler made his MLB debut earlier this season and pretty much what you see is what you are going to get. There isn't a lot of upside or projection here. Sadler is a pitcher with average stuff, good command and an ability to induce ground balls. He isn't going to strike a lot of people out but he has the talent to be a serviceable back of the rotation arm or long reliever in the bullpen.
Dickson and Borden were drafted last year by the Pirates and are a bit of a rarity for the team they are college pitchers with a lot of upside. Usually the Pirates draft for upside amongst high school pitchers and bring in college pitchers with limited upside but ones who they think can become solid major leaguers. Dickson is a left handed pitcher than can get his fastball into the mid 90s, he has a good curve and an average change up. He has some control issues to work out but has the stuff to become a mid rotation starter. Dickson was often cited as a potential breakout prospect for the Pirates this year but that really hasn't happened. His control issues have continued to bother him and because of that he hasn't been all that effective in A ball. Borden has more work to do with his secondary pitches than Dickson but is a little farther along in the control department. Both pitchers possess similar upsides. Borden was considered the slightly lesser prospect of the two but he has had a fairly successful season in A ball which has allowed him according to some observers to leap frog Dickson. Both players have honestly been a bit disappointing considering the conservative nature of their placement.
Holmes and Creasy are the second and third most interesting prep arms from the 2011 draft class (we will get to #1 a little later). Holmes was given 1.2 million dollars to sign as a 9th round pick. Initially Holmes struggled to adjust to pro ball but he really turned it on in the second half on 2013 and started shooting up prospect lists. His stuff is the usual assortment of a low to mid 90s fastball, an improving curve and a developing change up. Holmes looked destined for A+ this year but unfortunately he required Tommy John surgery which will keep him out all season. On the bright side the Pirates still have one more year before they have to make a decision on adding him to the roster. Creasy was selected a round before Holmes but signed for just 250K. He isn’t a flashy pitcher throwing in the low 90s with average secondary pitches that don't project to get much better but he has remarkable control. He just recently had a string of over 40 innings without allowing a walk snapped. Like Holmes he really started to get on the map last year in the second half but unlike Holmes he has gotten a chance to follow it up and he has done well. Due to him being 19 when drafted out of high school Creasy is eligible for the upcoming Rule V draft so the Pirates will have a tough decision to make with him.
Luis Heredia once ranked much higher on this list. That guy is still in him somewhere but it is difficult enough to see it than Heredia is no longer an elite prospect rather just a very good one. At 19 years old he is still incredibly young for his level so there is no need to panic on him quite yet. The potential stuff is still there as there have been reports he has touched 98 in the past though he usually stays at 93-94 if not a bit lower. Heredia really hasn't been "bad" at any level he has played at but he hasn't pitched nearly as well as one would like to see given his talent level. He is still worth keeping an eye on but right now he is really just another good prospect. Hinsz was drafted by the Pirates in the 11th round of this past draft. It looked like it would be a long shot for the Pirates to sign him but by using every available dollar they had without forfeiting a pick they got the job done. Hinsz isn't as highly regarded as the two prep arms the Pirates took before him but he has such an odd background it’s easy to see him having a higher upside than the others. Hinsz comes from Montana and he didn't even have a high school baseball team to play on instead he played American Legion ball. He throws in the low 90s and naturally needs work on his secondary pitches. His delivery is quite refined for a guy with such a limited baseball background. There is a lot of projection and upside with Hinsz.
The Top Six
6. Trey Supak: Supak was one of two prep arms taken in this year's draft prior to Hinsz. He has in his arsenal a low 90s fastball and a curve and a changeup that project as average pitches. Overall he was ranked the 99th best player in the draft by Baseball America. At 6' 5", 210 lbs there is still some projection left in him and he could get his fastball up into the mid or even high 90s. Supak also possess good control of his pitches but does have a tendency to wear down relatively quickly. If he can build up his stamina and add some velocity to his pitches Supak has the makings of a very fine starting pitcher. The Pirates are pitching him sparingly in rookie ball this year just to let him get his feet wet.
5. Mitch Keller: Keller is quite similar to Supak and was rated not too far ahead of him at 76th overall. What gives Keller the slight edge is that his curveball is seen as a better pitch than Supak's and he doesn't appear to have quite as much stamina trouble. He is the smaller of the two at 6' 3", 195 lbs but he too still has plenty of room to fill out his frame and add velocity. Keller and Supak (and Hinsz) for that matter both had strong college commitments but the Pirates were able to sign them away (Keller and Supak received identical 1 million dollar signing bonuses). Like Supak, Keller is getting his feet wet in rookie ball although his results in very limited innings have been a bit better.
4. Adrian Sampson: Sampson has been the biggest breakout prospect in the Pirates system this season. The Pirates drafted Sampson in 2012 out of a Junior College making his age in between that of a high school and college draftee. The Pirates have chosen to put him on a fast paced track. The Pirates started him off in short season ball where he pitched very well striking out a lot of batters while keeping his walks under control. The next season, 2013, the Pirates aggressively pushed him to A+. He showed excellent command while there, but struggled to miss bats and got hit pretty hard. Despite the rough year the Pirates still sent him to AA this season and it has paid off as he has been very good. The great control has remained and he has started missing a few more bats. His arsenal includes a low to mid 90s fastball, a plus curve and a changeup that is progressing nicely. He has good command of all of his pitches. At 22 years old he is a bit young for AA and considering the Pirates put him on an aggressive path the strong numbers are very encouraging. Look for him to be in AAA by the end of the year and if all goes well he and 2 of the above 3 players could be knocking on Pittsburgh's door come next summer.
3. Nicholas Kingham: There definitely exists a bit of a gulf between #3 and #4 on my list. Kingham is one of the Pirates elite 7 prospects all of which are either on or very much in the discussion for Top 100 lists. He throws his fastball in the mid 90s and his curveball has developed really nicely and is a plus pitch now. His changeup has also come along nicely though he still needs a little work with it. Kingham has progressed nicely since being draft back in 2010 but hit a little bump in the road last in AA after dominating A+. The Pirates had him repeat the AA level this year and his results improved earning him a promotion to AAA where he has turned it up another level. Kingham hasn't shown quite as good strike out stuff this year as he has in the past but his command has improved. Kingham seems like a solid bet to become a mid rotation starter with the upside of becoming a little bit more.
2. Jameson Taillon: I don't think I need to say much about Taillon. The Pirates selected him #2 overall in 2010 because of his immense talent and that talent remains today. There are still questions about him elevating his pitches and being too hittable and him having Tommy John surgery this year has certainly hurt his stock but make no mistake the talent to be a #1 SP is still there. Taillon has a mid 90s fastball, a plus curveball and his changeup is still something that needs refined (like most young pitchers). Aside from his first taste of AA back in 2012 Taillon really hasn't been dominant at any level but it is difficult to know how much of that is the Pirates approach to handling pitchers and how much of that is Taillon. The Tommy John surgery has set Taillon back some and he will need time to recover from it and get in shape for the majors but he should still be ready to make his MLB debut sometime late next summer.
1. Tyler Glasnow: I alluded earlier to a prep pitcher taken in 2011 that was more interesting that Holes or Creasy well that of course is Glasnow. Glasnow is fun to dream on. From a prospect perspective the guy basically has no ceiling that is how much talent he has. He has a plus fastball that gets into the upper 90s, a curve ball that he uses as a strike out pitch and even a changeup which has shown a lot of progress. The guy was essentially unhittable last season and with the exception of his first couple starts after returning from his back injury it has been more of the same this season. Of course if things were all this wonderful Glasnow would not only be the Pirates top prospect but the best prospect in all of baseball. He isn't of course and that is because his command needs a good deal of work. Glasnow walks about as many batter as he allows hits to which is rarely a good sign. He has slowly been showing signs of improving his control so far this year and if that continues he will only become even more incredible. The Pirates are taking things slow with Glasnow so it appears highly unlikely he'll be a factor in the majors in 2015 but 2016 should be an entirely different story.