Would Bernie Have Won If All States Had Open Primaries ?

Bernie Sanders has now admitted that the Democratic presidential nominating process is not rigged. But he still thinks it was unfair. He's not talking about super delegates anymore, since the only way he can possibly win now is to convince a few hundred super delegates to switch their support from Hillary Clinton to him.
He does, however, think the closed primaries have worked against him, and his supporters are all over social media claiming he would have won if all states had open primaries (which would allow Independents and Republicans to vote in the Democratic primary).
Is that true? Would Bernie have won if all states had an open primary? Nate Silver and Harry Enten of fivethirtyeight.com don't think so. Their data shows that it would have made very little difference in the overall delegate count. The first chart below shows the current vote totals and delegate counts -- and the second chart shows what they project the vote count and delegate totals would have been if all state had an open primary. (Caricature of Sanders is by DonkeyHotey.)

POPULAR VOTE (THOUSANDS)PLEDGED DELEGATES

STATECAUCUSCLOSEDWINNERCLINTONSANDERSCLINTONSANDERS

Iowa✓Clinton+085852321

N.H.Sanders+2295152915

Nevada✓✓Clinton+544402015

South CarolinaClinton+47272963914

AlabamaClinton+5930976449

Am. Samoa✓Clinton+43<1 td=""><1 td="">42

ArkansasClinton+36146662210

GeorgiaClinton+435462167329

MassachusettsClinton+16075904645

OklahomaSanders+101391741721

TennesseeClinton+342461214423

TexasClinton+3293647714775

VermontSanders+7218116016

VirginiaClinton+295052766233

Colorado✓✓Sanders+1950732541

Minnesota✓Sanders+23781263146

Louisiana✓Clinton+48222723714

Nebraska✓✓Sanders+1414191015

Kansas✓✓Sanders+3513261023

Maine✓✓Sanders+291630817

MichiganSanders+15825996367

MississippiClinton+6618738315

N. Marianas✓✓Clinton+20<1 td=""><1 td="">42

Florida✓Clinton+311,10156914173

IllinoisClinton+21,0409997977

MissouriClinton+03123113635

North CarolinaClinton+146234676047

OhioClinton+136975358162

Dems abroadSanders+38112449

Arizona✓Clinton+152621934233

Utah✓Sanders+591560627

Idaho✓Sanders+57519518

Hawaii✓Sanders+401024817

Washington✓Sanders+46621672774

Alaska✓✓Sanders+5928313

WisconsinSanders+144345703848

Wyoming✓✓Sanders+113477

New York✓Clinton+161,134820139108

Pennsylvania✓Clinton+1292272210683

Rhode IslandSanders+1253671113

Connecticut✓Clinton+51701522827

Delaware✓Clinton+215637129

Maryland✓Clinton+295733106134

IndianaSanders+53033353944

Guam✓✓Clinton+191143

West VirginiaSanders+16861231118

Kentucky✓Clinton+02132112827

Oregon✓Sanders+132643472635

TotalClinton+1213,46310,5441,7711,499

Democratic votes and delegates based on actual results The model considers each 2016 contest and controls for (i) the black and Hispanic share of the Democratic vote in that state in the 2008 general election, (ii) whether that primary or caucus is “open” to independent voters unaffiliated with a political party, and (iii) the margin in national primary polls at the time the contest is held.
But what would happen if every state held a primary that was open to independent voters? Independent voters, after all, have been among Sanders’s strongest groups, and Sanders supporters have consistently cited closed contests as evidence the game is rigged. We can rerun the same regression as above but estimate what would happen if all the primaries are open to unaffiliated voters.

POPULAR VOTE (THOUSANDS)PLEDGED DELEGATES

STATEWINNERCLINTONSANDERSCLINTONSANDERS

IowaClinton+243011822717

NevadaClinton+181881302114

Am. SamoaClinton+604151

ColoradoSanders+63313733135

MinnesotaClinton+14023943938

LouisianaClinton+392401003615

NebraskaSanders+579881213

KansasSanders+23901441320

MaineSanders+16911271015

N. MarianasClinton+303242

FloridaClinton+201,15976012985

ArizonaClinton+42672483936

UtahSanders+39521201023

IdahoSanders+373372716

HawaiiSanders+1763881015

WashingtonClinton+64714185348

AlaskaSanders+501648412

WyomingClinton+2191977

New YorkClinton+41,1461,049129118

PennsylvaniaClinton+09159079594

ConnecticutSanders+61762002629

DelawareClinton+958491110

MarylandClinton+185813995639

GuamClinton+3111652

KentuckySanders+102052562431

OregonSanders+252514182338

Current open primary statesClinton+128,1466,429956715

TotalClinton+815,29813,0241,7821,488

Projected results if every state had held an open primary