Will Global Food Prices Stagnate as Population Growth Slows?

By Garry Rogers @Garry_Rogers

GR.–The stability of Earth’s natural systems, the planetary ‘resource infrastructure’ is weakening.  Remember, the Club of Rome projected that collapse begins around 2020. The decline of human civilization will surely bob along only visible as a smooth decent if reconstructed centuries hence.

Joe Bish, Population Media Center.–“Global food costs more than doubled since 2000 as population expanded and rising incomes meant more demand for meat…

“My first thought upon reading the following article, many iterations of which made the global news-circuit earlier this month, was that I am glad the FAO and OECD are not in charge of my future planning.

“The article is intended as a report out on the latest release of the two organizations’ annual projections for major agricultural commodities. This report analyses how global and domestic forces are likely to shape agricultural markets over the next decade, while highlighting some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence the agricultural outlook. As you can see, the Bloomberg news-report below gives an extremely Pollyannish view for the next ten years — which defies common sense to a considerable degree.

“However, if you go to the actual report, which this year features a special section on sub-Saharan Africa, you’ll see a somewhat different picture emerge. For example, the Forward of the full report, (PDF) notes the following:

  • …for the [agricultural] sector to meet the expanding demand for food, feed and raw products for industrial uses, significant production growth is needed. This expansion will have to take place in the face of declining land and water availability for many areas in the world, compounded by the effects of climate change
  • … While improvements to the global availability of, and access to, food are expected in the coming years, many countries will continue to be burdened with undernourishment and face increasingly complex issues of various forms of malnutrition…
  • …the challenge of feeding rapidly rising populations [in sub-Saharan Africa] remains formidable. The region has to overcome the challenge of low productivity of agricultural resources in the face of rapid urbanisation, increased globalization, the impacts of climate change, changing diets and the need for creating employment opportunities.

“So, now you know “the rest of the story,” as they say. It is disturbing to think how utterly misinformed someone taking the Bloomberg report at face value would be.”

Global Food Prices Set to Stagnate as Population Growth Slowing (The following is from: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-04/global-food-prices-set-to-stagnate-as-population-growth-slowing)

“Food prices will stagnate over the next decade as the population growth rate declines and income expansion in emerging economies slows.

“Food costs will stabilize at a level slightly higher than in the years before the 2007-08 price spike, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization said in a joint report. Population growth, the main driver of food prices, will slow to 1 percent annually through 2025, the organizations said.”  Source: Global Food Prices Set to Stagnate as Population Growth Slowing?